---
Seriously..
They are speaking to us.. "blue as our new second sun" Will you listen???
Each song linked to youtube.. enjoy ;)
Greg
Pink Floyd - Momentary Lapse Of Reason Lyrics
Signs of Life Lyrics
Learning To Fly Lyrics
The Dogs Of War Lyrics
One Slip Lyrics
On The Turning Away Lyrics
Yet Another Movie Lyrics
A New Machine - Part I Lyrics
A New Machine - Part II Lyrics
Sorrow Lyrics
Signs of Life Lyrics
When the child like view of the world went, nothing replaced it...
nothing replaced it...nothing replaced it...
I do not like being asked to.....I do not like being asked to...
I do not like being asked to....
Other people replaced it
Someone who knows
(Instrumental)
Learning to Fly Lyrics
Into the distance, a ribbon of black
Stretched to the point of no turning back
A flight of fancy on a windswept field
Standing alone my senses reeled
A fatal attraction holding me fast, how
Can I escape this irresistible grasp?
Can't keep my eyes from the circling skies
Tongue-tied and twisted Just an earth-bound misfit, I
Ice is forming on the tips of my wings
Unheeded warnings, I thought I thought of everything
No navigator to guide my way home
Unladened, empty and turned to stone
A soul in tension that's learning to fly
Condition grounded but determined to try
Can't keep my eyes from the circling skies
Tongue-tied and twisted just an earth-bound misfit, I
Friction lock - set.
Mixture - rich
Propellers - fully forward
Flaps - set - 10 degrees
Engine gauges and suction - check
Mixture set to maximum percent - recheck
Flight instruments...
Altimeters - check both
(garbled word) - on
Navigation lights - on
Strobes - on
(to tower): Confirm 3-8-Echo ready for departure
(tower): Hello again, this is now 129.4
(to tower): 129.4. It's to go.
(tower): You may commence your takeoff, winds over 10 knots.
(to tower): 3-8-Echo
Easy on the brakes. Take it easy. Its gonna roll this time.
Just hand the power gradually, and it...
Above the planet on a wing and a prayer,
My grubby halo, a vapour trail in the empty air,
Across the clouds I see my shadow fly
Out of the corner of my watering eye
A dream unthreatened by the morning light
Could blow this soul right through the roof of the night
There's no sensation to compare with this
Suspended animation, A state of bliss
Can't keep my eyes from the circling skies
Tongue-tied and twisted just an earth-bound misfit, I
The Dogs of War Lyrics
Dogs of war and men of hate
With no cause, we don't discriminate
Discovery is to be disowned
Our currency is flesh and bone
Hell opened up and put on sale
Gather 'round and haggle
For hard cash, we will lie and deceive
Even our masters don't know the web we weave
One world, it's a battleground
One world, and we will smash it down
One world ... One world
Invisible transfers, long distance calls,
Hollow laughter in marble halls
Steps have been taken, a silent uproar
Has unleashed the dogs of war
You can't stop what has begun
Signed, sealed, they deliver oblivion
We all have a dark side, to say the least
And dealing in death is the nature of the beast
One world, it's a battleground
One world, and we will smash it down
One world ... One world
The dogs of war don't negotiate
The dogs of war won't capitulate,
They will take and you will give,
And you must die so that they may live
You can knock at any door,
But wherever you go, you know they've been there before
Well winners can lose and things can get strained
But whatever you change, you know the dogs remain.
One world, it's a battleground
One world, and we will smash it down
One world ... One world
One Slip Lyrics
A restless eye across a weary room
A glazed look and I was on the road to ruin
The music played and played as we whirled without end
No hint, no word her honour to defend
I will, I will she sighed to my request
And then she tossed her mane while my resolve was put to the test
Then drowned in desire, our souls on fire
I lead the way to the funeral pyre
And without a thought of the consequence
I gave in to my decadence
One slip, and down the hole we fall
It seems to take no time at all
A momentary lapse of reason
That binds a life for life
A small regret, you won't forget,
There'll be no sleep in here tonight
Was it love, or was it the idea of being in love?
Or was it the hand of fate, that seemed to fit just like a glove?
The moment slipped by and soon the seeds were sown
The year grew late and neither one wanted to remain alone
One slip, and down the hole we fall
It seems to take no time at all
A momentary lapse of reason
That binds a life for life
A small regret, you will never forget,
There'll be no sleep in here tonight
On the Turning Away Lyrics
On the turning away
From the pale and downtrodden
And the words they say
Which we won't understand
"Don't accept that what's happening
Is just a case of others' suffering
Or you'll find that you're joining in
The turning away"
It's a sin that somehow
Light is changing to shadow
And casting it's shroud
Over all we have known
Unaware how the ranks have grown
Driven on by a heart of stone
We could find that we're all alone
In the dream of the proud
On the wings of the night
As the daytime is stirring
Where the speechless unite
In a silent accord
Using words you will find are strange
And mesmerized as they light the flame
Feel the new wind of change
On the wings of the night
No more turning away
From the weak and the weary
No more turning away
From the coldness inside
Just a world that we all must share
It's not enough just to stand and stare
Is it only a dream that there'll be
No more turning away?
Yet Another Movie Lyrics
One sound, one single sound
One kiss, one single kiss
A face outside the window pane
However did it come to this?
A man who ran, a child who cried
A girl who heard, a voice that lied
The sun that burned a fiery red
The vision of an empty bed
The use of force, he was so tough
She'll soon submit, she's had enough
The march of fate, the broken will
Someone is lying very still
He has laughed and he has cried
He has fought and he has died
He's just the same as all the rest
He's not the worst, he's not the best
And still this ceaseless murmuring
The babbling that I brook
The seas of faces, eyes upraised
The empty screen, the vacant look
A man in black on a snow white horse,
A pointless life has run its course,
The red rimmed eyes, the tears still run
As he fades into the setting sun
M: You're going on that plane to take you where you belong.
W: But no, I have...
M: You have got to listen to me. Do you have any idea what
you have to look forward to if you stay here?
Nine chances out of 10 we both end up
in a concentration camp and that....
W: You're only saying these things to make me go.
M: I'm saying it 'cause it's true. Inside us,
we both know we belong in different......
....maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon,
and for the rest of your life.
W: But what about us?
But what about us?
But what about us?
A New Machine - Part I Lyrics
I have always been here
I have always looked out from behind the eyes
It feels like more than a lifetime
Feels like more than a lifetime
Sometimes I get tired of the waiting
Sometimes I get tired of being in here
Is this the way it has always been?
Could it ever have been different?
Do you ever get tired of the waiting?
Do you ever get tired of being in there?
Don't worry, nobody lives forever,
Nobody lives forever
A New Machine - Part II Lyrics
I will always be in here
I will always look out from behind these eyes
It's only a lifetime
It's only a lifetime
It's only a lifetime
Sorrow Lyrics
The sweet smell of a great sorrow lies over the land
Plumes of smoke rise and merge into the leaden sky:
A man lies and dreams of green fields and rivers,
But awakes to a morning with no reason for waking
He's haunted by the memory of a lost paradise
In his youth or a dream, he can't be precise
He's chained forever to a world that's departed
It's not enough, it's not enough
His blood has frozen & curdled with fright
His knees have trembled & given way in the night
His hand has weakened at the moment of truth
His step has faltered
One world, one soul
Time pass, the river rolls
It's not enough it's not enough
His hand has faltered
.... .... ......
And he talks to the river of lost love and dedication
And silent replies that swirl invitation
Flow dark and troubled to an oily sea
A grim intimation of what is to be
There's an unceasing wind that blows through this night
And there's dust in my eyes, that blinds my sight
And silence that speaks so much louder that words,
Of promises broken
============================================
Tool - lyrics to "ænima"
01 stinkfist •
Something has to change.
Un-deniable dilemma.
Boredom's not a burden
Anyone should bear.
Constant over stimu-lation numbs me
and I wouldn't have
It any other way.
It's not enough.
I need more.
Nothing seems to satisfy.
I don't want it.
I just need it.
To feel, to breathe, to know I'm alive.
Finger deep within the borderline.
Show me that you love me and that we belong together.
Relax, turn around and take my hand.
I can help you change
Tired moments into pleasure.
Say the word and we'll be
Well upon our way.
Blend and balance
Pain and comfort
Deep within you
Till you will not have me any other way.
It's not enough.
I need more.
Nothing seems to satisfy.
I don't want it.
I just need it.
To feel, to breathe, to know I'm alive.
Knuckle deep inside the borderline.
This may hurt a little but it's something you'll get used to.
Relax. Slip away.
Something kinda sad about
the way that things have come to be.
Desensitized to everything.
What became of subtlety?
How can it mean anything to me
If I really don't feel anything at all?
I'll keep digging till
I feel something.
Elbow deep inside the borderline.
Show me that you love me and that we belong together.
Shoulder deep within the borderline.
Relax. Turn around and take my hand.
02 eulogy •
He had alot to say.
He had alot of nothing to say.
We'll miss him.
So long.
We wish you well.
You told us how you weren't afraid to die.
Well then, so long.
Don't cry.
Or feel too down.
Not all martyrs see divinity.
But at least you tried.
Standing above the crowd,
He had a voice that was strong and loud.
We'll miss him.
Ranting and pointing his finger
At everything but his heart.
We'll miss him.
No way to recall
What it was that you had said to me,
Like I care at all.
So loud.
You sure could yell.
You took a stand on every little thing
And so loud.
Standing above the crowd,
He had a voice so strong and loud and I
Swallowed his facade cuz I'm so
Eager to identify with
Someone above the ground,
Someone who seemed to feel the same,
Someone prepared to lead the way, with
Someone who would die for me.
Will you? Will you now?
Would you die for me?
Don't you fuckin lie.
Don't you step out of line.
Don't you fuckin lie.
You've claimed all this time that you would die for me.
Why then are you so surprised to hear your own eulogy?
You had alot to say.
You had alot of nothing to say.
Come down.
Get off your fuckin cross.
We need the fuckin space to nail the next fool martyr.
To ascend you must die.
You must be crucified
For your sins and your lies. [sic]
Goodbye...
03 h. •
What's coming through is alive.
What's holding up is a mirror.
But what's singing songs is a snake
Looking to turn this piss to wine.
They're both totally void of hate,
But killing me just the same.
The snake behind me hisses
What my damage could have been.
My blood before me begs me
Open up my heart again.
And I feel this coming over like a storm again.
Considerately.
Venomous voice, tempts me,
Drains me, bleeds me,
Leaves me cracked and empty.
Drags me down like some sweet gravity.
The snake behind me hisses
What my damage could have been.
My blood before me begs me
Open up my heart again.
And I feel this coming over like a storm again.
I am too connected to you to
Slip away, to fade away.
Days away I still feel you
Touching me, changing me,
And considerately killing me.
Without the skin,
Beneath the storm,
Under these tears
The walls came down.
And the snake is drowned and
As I look in his eyes,
My fear begins to fade
Recalling all of those times.
I could have cried then.
I should have cried then.
And as the walls come down and
As I look in your eyes
My fear begins to fade
Recalling all of the times
I have died
and will die.
It's all right.
I don't mind.
I am too connected to you to
Slip away, to fade away.
Days away I still feel you
Touching me, changing me,
And considerately killing me.
04 useful idiot •
There are no words.
05 forty-six & 2 •
My shadow's
shedding skin and
I've been picking
Scabs again.
I'm down
Digging through
My old muscles
Looking for a clue.
I've been crawling on my belly
Clearing out what could've been.
I've been wallowing in my own confused
And insecure delusions
For a piece to cross me over
Or a word to guide me in.
I wanna feel the changes coming down.
I wanna know what I've been hiding in
My shadow.
Change is coming through my shadow.
My shadow's shedding skin
I've been picking
My scabs again.
I've been crawling on my belly
Clearing out what could've been.
I've been wallowing in my own chaotic
And insecure delusions.
I wanna feel the change consume me,
Feel the outside turning in.
I wanna feel the metamorphosis and
Cleansing I've endured within
My shadow
Change is coming.
Now is my time.
Listen to my muscle memory.
Contemplate what I've been clinging to.
Forty-six and two ahead of me.
I choose to live and to
Grow, take and give and to
Move, learn and love and to
Cry, kill and die and to
Be paranoid and to
Lie, hate and fear and to
Do what it takes to move through.
I choose to live and to
Lie, kill and give and to
Die, learn and love and to
Do what it takes to step through.
See my shadow changing,
Stretching up and over me.
Soften this old armor.
Hoping I can clear the way
By stepping through my shadow,
Coming out the other side.
Step into the shadow.
Forty six and two are just ahead of me.
06 message to harry manback •
[words in brackets unclear]
Figlio di puttana, sai che tu sei un pezzo di merda? (1)
Hm? You think you're cool, right? Hm? Hm?
When you kicked out people [out of] your house
I tell you this, one of three Americans die of cancer,
you know? Asshole. You're gonna be one of those.
I [don't have the] courage
to kick your ass directly.
Don't have enough courage for that,
I could, you know.
You know you're gonna have another accident?
You know I'm involved with black magic?
Fuck you. Die. Bastard.
You think you're so cool, hm? Asshole.
And if I ever see your fucking face around,
In Europe or Italy,
Well I'll -- That time I'm gonna kick your ass.
Fuck you. Fucking Americans, Yankee.
You're gonna die outta cancer, I promise.
[Bang bang / Deep pain]
No one does what you did to me.
You wanna know something? Fuck you.
I want your balls smashed, eat shit. Bastard.
Pezzo di merda, figlio di puttana. (2)
I hope somebody in your family dies soon.
Crepa, pezzo di merda, e vai
a sucare cazzi su un aereo! (3)
(1) Son of a bitch, do you know you are a piece of shit?
(2) Piece of shit, son of a bitch.
(3) Die, piece of shit, and go suck dicks on a plane!
07 hooker with a penis •
I met a boy wearing Vans, 501s, and a
Dope Beastie t, nipple rings, and
New tattoos that claimed that he
Was OGT,
From '92,
The first EP.
And in between
Sips of Coke
He told me that
He thought
We were sellin' out,
Layin' down,
Suckin' up
To the man.
Well now I've got some
A-dvice for you, little buddy.
Before you point the finger
You should know that
I'm the man,
And if I'm the man,
Then you're the man, and
He's the man as well so you can
Point that fuckin' finger up your ass.
All you know about me is what I've sold you,
Dumb fuck.
I sold out long before you ever heard my name.
I sold my soul to make a record,
Dip shit,
And you bought one.
So I've got some
Advice for you, little buddy.
Before you point your finger
You should know that
I'm the man,
If I'm the fuckin' man
Then you're the fuckin' man as well
So you can
Point that fuckin' finger up your ass.
All you know about me is what I've sold you,
Dumb fuck.
I sold out long before you ever heard my name.
I sold my soul to make a record,
Dip shit,
And you bought one.
All you read and
Wear or see and
Hear on TV
Is a product
Begging for your
Fatass dirty
Dollar
So...Shut up and
Buy my new record
Send more money
Fuck you, buddy.
08 intermission •
There are no words.
09 jimmy •
What was it like to see
The face of your own stability
Suddenly look away
Leaving you with the dead and hopeless?
Eleven and she was gone.
Eleven is when we waved good-bye.
Eleven is standing still,
Waiting for me to free him
By coming home.
Moving me with a sound.
Opening me within a gesture.
Drawing me down and in,
Showing me where it all began,
Eleven.
It took so long to realize that
You hold the light that's been leading me back home.
Under a dead ohio sky,
Eleven has been and will be waiting,
Defending his light,
And wondering...
Where the hell have I been?
Sleeping, lost, and numb.
So glad that I have found you.
I am wide awake and heading home.
Hold your light,
Eleven.
Lead me through each gentle step by step
by inch by loaded memory.
I'll move to heal
As soon as pain allows so we can
Reunite and both move on together.
Hold your light,
Eleven. Lead me through each gentle step by step
By inch by loaded memory
'till one and one are one, eleven,
So glow, child, glow.
I'm heading back home.
10 die eier von satan •
GERMAN
Die Eier von Satan
Eine halbe Tasse Staubzucker
Ein Viertel Teelöffel Salz
Eine Messerspitze türkisches Haschisch
Ein halbes Pfund Butter
Ein Teelöffel Vanillenzucker
Ein halbes Pfund Mehl
Einhundertfünfzig Gramm gemahlene Nüsse
Ein wenig extra Staubzucker
... und keine Eier
In eine Schüssel geben
Butter einrühren
Gemahlene Nüsse zugeben und
Den Teig verkneten
Augenballgroße Stücke vom Teig formen
Im Staubzucker wälzen und
Sagt die Zauberwörter
Simsalbimbamba Saladu Saladim
Auf ein gefettetes Backblech legen und
Bei zweihundert Grad für fünfzehn Minuten backen und
KEINE EIER
Bei zweihundert Grad für fünfzehn Minuten backen und
Keine Eier ..
ENGLISH
The Eggs/Balls of Satan
Half a cup of powdered sugar
One quarter teaspoo salt
One knifetip Turkish hash
Half a pound butter
One teaspoon vanilla-sugar
Half a pound flour
150 g ground nuts
A little extra powdered sugar
... and no eggs
Place in a bowl
Add butter
Add the ground nuts and
Knead the dough
Form eyeball-size pieces from the dough
Roll in the powdered sugar
and say the Magic Words:
"Sim sala bim bamba sala do saladim"
Place on a greased baking pan and
Bake at 200 degrees for 15 minutes
...AND NO EGGS
Bake at 200 degrees for 15 minutes
...and no eggs.
11 pushit •
I will choke until I swallow...
Choke this infant here before me.
What is this but my reflection?
Who am I to judge and strike you down?
But you're
Pushing and shoving me.
You still love me and you pushit on me.
Rest your trigger on my finger,
bang my head upon the fault line.
Take care not to make me enter.
'cause if I do we both may disappear.
But you're pushing me,
Shoving me. Pushit on me.
Slipping back into the gap again.
I'm alive when you're touching me,
Alive when you're shoving me down.
But i'd trade it all
For just a little bit of
Piece of mind.
Put me somewhere I don't wanna be.
Seeing someplace I don't wanna see.
Never wanna see that place again.
Saw that gap again today
As you were begging me to stay.
Managed to push myself away,
And you, as well.
If, when I say I may fade like a sigh if I stay,
You minimize my movement anyway,
I must persuade you another way.
There's no love in fear.
Staring down the hole again.
Hands upon my back again.
Survival is my only friend.
Terrified of what may come.
Just remember I will always love you,
Even as I tear your fucking throat away.
But it will end no other way.
12 cesaro summability •
There are no words.
13 ænema •
Some say the end is near.
Some say we'll see armageddon soon.
I certainly hope we will.
I sure could use a vacation from this
Bullshit three ring circus sideshow of
Freaks
Here in this hopeless fucking hole we call LA
The only way to fix it is to flush it all away.
Any fucking time. Any fucking day.
Learn to swim, I'll see you down in Arizona bay.
Fret for your figure and
Fret for your latte and
Fret for your hairpiece and
Fret for your lawsuit and
Fret for your prozac and
Fret for your pilot and
Fret for your contract and
Fret for your car.
It's a
Bullshit three ring circus sideshow of
Freaks
Here in this hopeless fucking hole we call LA
The only way to fix it is to flush it all away.
Any fucking time. Any fucking day.
Learn to swim, I'll see you down in Arizona bay.
Some say a comet will fall from the sky.
Followed by meteor showers and tidal waves.
Followed by faultlines that cannot sit still.
Followed by millions of dumbfounded dipshits.
Some say the end is near.
Some say we'll see armageddon soon.
I certainly hope we will cuz
I sure could use a vacation from this
Silly shit, stupid shit...
One great big festering neon distraction,
I've a suggestion to keep you all occupied.
Learn to swim.
Mom's gonna fix it all soon.
Mom's comin' round to put it back the way it ought to be.
Learn to swim.
Fuck L Ron Hubbard and
Fuck all his clones.
Fuck all those gun-toting
Hip gangster wannabes.
Learn to swim.
Fuck retro anything.
Fuck your tattoos.
Fuck all you junkies and
Fuck your short memory.
Learn to swim.
Fuck smiley glad-hands
With hidden agendas.
Fuck these dysfunctional,
Insecure actresses.
Learn to swim.
Cuz I'm praying for rain
And I'm praying for tidal waves
I wanna see the ground give way.
I wanna watch it all go down.
Mom please flush it all away.
I wanna watch it go right in and down.
I wanna watch it go right in.
Watch you flush it all away.
Time to bring it down again.
Don't just call me pessimist.
Try and read between the lines.
I can't imagine why you wouldn't
Welcome any change, my friend.
I wanna see it all come down.
suck it down.
flush it down.
14 (-) ions •
There are no words.
15 third eye •
Dreaming of that face again.
It's bright and blue and shimmering.
Grinning wide
And comforting me with it's three warm and wild eyes.
On my back and tumbling
Down that hole and back again
Rising up
And wiping the webs and the dew from my withered eye.
In... Out... In... Out... In... Out...
A child's rhyme stuck in my head.
It said that life is but a dream.
I've spent so many years in question
to find I've known this all along.
"So good to see you.
I've missed you so much.
So glad it's over.
I've missed you so much
Came out to watch you play.
Why are you running?"
Shroud-ing all the ground around me
Is this holy crow above me.
Black as holes within a memory
And blue as our new second sun.
I stick my hand into his shadow
To pull the pieces from the sand.
Which I attempt to reassemble
To see just who I might have been.
I do not recognize the vessel,
But the eyes seem so familiar.
Like phosphorescent desert buttons
Singing one familiar song...
"So good to see you.
I've missed you so much.
So glad it's over.
I've missed you so much.
Came out to watch you play.
Why are you running away?"
Prying open my third eye.
So good to see you once again.
I thought that you were hiding.
And you thought that I had run away.
Chasing the tail of dogma.
I opened my eye and there we were.
So good to see you once again
I thought that you were hiding from me.
And you thought that I had run away.
Chasing a trail of smoke and reason.
Prying open my third eye
00 transcription credits •
Maynard James Keenan (01 - 05, 07 - 09, 11 - 15)
These are the lyrics straight from the source.
They form a blueprint for each performance of each song.
They may vary at times, but the above words were typed
by the guy who sings them. Let them be your starting point.
Ryan Adam (06)
Chris Jenkins (06)
John Roumanis (06)
Giuliano Golfieri (06)
Denis Hoffmann (10, German)
Mr Punch (10, English)
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Text of Bernanke [BS!] speech \ With commentary
---
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
August 26, 2011
The Near- and Longer-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy
Good morning. As always, thanks are due to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City for organizing this conference. This year's topic, long-term economic growth, is indeed pertinent--as has so often been the case at this symposium in past years. In particular, the financial crisis and the subsequent slow recovery have caused some to question whether the United States, notwithstanding its long-term record of vigorous economic growth, might not now be facing a prolonged period of stagnation, regardless of its public policy choices. Might not the very slow pace of economic expansion of the past few years, not only in the United States but also in a number of other advanced economies, morph into something far more long-lasting?
I can certainly appreciate these concerns and am fully aware of the challenges that we face in restoring economic and financial conditions conducive to healthy growth, some of which I will comment on today. With respect to longer-run prospects, however, my own view is more optimistic. As I will discuss, although important problems certainly exist, the growth fundamentals of the United States do not appear to have been permanently altered by the shocks of the past four years. It may take some time, but we can reasonably expect to see a return to growth rates and employment levels consistent with those underlying fundamentals. In the interim, however, the challenges for U.S. economic policymakers are twofold: first, to help our economy further recover from the crisis and the ensuing recession, and second, to do so in a way that will allow the economy to realize its longer-term growth potential. Economic policies should be evaluated in light of both of those objectives.
This morning I will offer some thoughts on why the pace of recovery in the United States has, for the most part, proved disappointing thus far, and I will discuss the Federal Reserve's policy response. I will then turn briefly to the longer-term prospects of our economy and the need for our country's economic policies to be effective from both a shorter-term and longer-term perspective.
Near-Term Prospects for the Economy and Policy
In discussing the prospects for the economy and for policy in the near term, it bears recalling briefly how we got here. The financial crisis that gripped global markets in 2008 and 2009 was more severe than any since the Great Depression. Economic policymakers around the world saw the mounting risks of a global financial meltdown in the fall of 2008 and understood the extraordinarily dire economic consequences that such an event could have. As I have described in previous remarks at this forum, governments and central banks worked forcefully and in close coordination to avert the looming collapse. The actions to stabilize the financial system were accompanied, both in the United States and abroad, by substantial monetary and fiscal stimulus. But notwithstanding these strong and concerted efforts, severe damage to the global economy could not be avoided. The freezing of credit, the sharp drops in asset prices, dysfunction in financial markets, and the resulting blows to confidence sent global production and trade into free fall in late 2008 and early 2009.
We meet here today almost exactly three years since the beginning of the most intense phase of the financial crisis and a bit more than two years since the National Bureau of Economic Research's date for the start of the economic recovery. Where do we stand?
There have been some positive developments over the past few years, particularly when considered in the light of economic prospects as viewed at the depth of the crisis. Overall, the global economy has seen significant growth, led by the emerging-market economies. In the United States, a cyclical recovery, though a modest one by historical standards, is in its ninth quarter. In the financial sphere, the U.S. banking system is generally much healthier now, with banks holding substantially more capital. Credit availability from banks has improved, though it remains tight in categories--such as small business lending--in which the balance sheets of potential borrowers remain impaired. Companies with access to the public bond markets have had no difficulty obtaining credit on favorable terms. Importantly, structural reform is moving forward in the financial sector, with ambitious domestic and international efforts underway to enhance the capital and liquidity of banks, especially the most systemically important banks; to improve risk management and transparency; to strengthen market infrastructure; and to introduce a more systemic, or macroprudential, approach to financial regulation and supervision.
In the broader economy, manufacturing production in the United States has risen nearly 15 percent since its trough, driven substantially by growth in exports. Indeed, the U.S. trade deficit has been notably lower recently than it was before the crisis, reflecting in part the improved competitiveness of U.S. goods and services. Business investment in equipment and software has continued to expand, and productivity gains in some industries have been impressive, though new data have reduced estimates of overall productivity improvement in recent years. Households also have made some progress in repairing their balance sheets--saving more, borrowing less, and reducing their burdens of interest payments and debt. Commodity prices have come off their highs, which will reduce the cost pressures facing businesses and help increase household purchasing power.
Notwithstanding these more positive developments, however, it is clear that the recovery from the crisis has been much less robust than we had hoped. From the latest comprehensive revisions to the national accounts as well as the most recent estimates of growth in the first half of this year, we have learned that the recession was even deeper and the recovery even weaker than we had thought; indeed, aggregate output in the United States still has not returned to the level that it attained before the crisis. Importantly, economic growth has for the most part been at rates insufficient to achieve sustained reductions in unemployment, which has recently been fluctuating a bit above 9 percent. Temporary factors, including the effects of the run-up in commodity prices on consumer and business budgets and the effect of the Japanese disaster on global supply chains and production, were part of the reason for the weak performance of the economy in the first half of 2011; accordingly, growth in the second half looks likely to improve as their influence recedes. However, the incoming data suggest that other, more persistent factors also have been at work.
Why has the recovery from the crisis been so slow and erratic? Historically, recessions have typically sowed the seeds of their own recoveries as reduced spending on investment, housing, and consumer durables generates pent-up demand. As the business cycle bottoms out and confidence returns, this pent-up demand, often augmented by the effects of stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, is met through increased production and hiring. Increased production in turn boosts business revenues and household incomes and provides further impetus to business and household spending. Improving income prospects and balance sheets also make households and businesses more creditworthy, and financial institutions become more willing to lend. Normally, these developments create a virtuous circle of rising incomes and profits, more supportive financial and credit conditions, and lower uncertainty, allowing the process of recovery to develop momentum.
These restorative forces are at work today, and they will continue to promote recovery over time. Unfortunately, the recession, besides being extraordinarily severe as well as global in scope, was also unusual in being associated with both a very deep slump in the housing market and a historic financial crisis. These two features of the downturn, individually and in combination, have acted to slow the natural recovery process.
Notably, the housing sector has been a significant driver of recovery from most recessions in the United States since World War II, but this time--with an overhang of distressed and foreclosed properties, tight credit conditions for builders and potential homebuyers, and ongoing concerns by both potential borrowers and lenders about continued house price declines--the rate of new home construction has remained at less than one-third of its pre-crisis level. The low level of construction has implications not only for builders but for providers of a wide range of goods and services related to housing and homebuilding. Moreover, even as tight credit for some borrowers has been one of the factors restraining housing recovery, the weakness of the housing sector has in turn had adverse effects on financial markets and on the flow of credit. For example, the sharp declines in house prices in some areas have left many homeowners "underwater" on their mortgages, creating financial hardship for households and, through their effects on rates of mortgage delinquency and default, stress for financial institutions as well. Financial pressures on financial institutions and households have contributed, in turn, to greater caution in the extension of credit and to slower growth in consumer spending.
I have already noted the central role of the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 in sparking the recession. As I also noted, a great deal has been done and is being done to address the causes and effects of the crisis, including a substantial program of financial reform, and conditions in the U.S. banking system and financial markets have improved significantly overall. Nevertheless, financial stress has been and continues to be a significant drag on the recovery, both here and abroad. Bouts of sharp volatility and risk aversion in markets have recently re-emerged in reaction to concerns about both European sovereign debts and developments related to the U.S. fiscal situation, including the recent downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit rating by one of the major rating agencies and the controversy concerning the raising of the U.S. federal debt ceiling. It is difficult to judge by how much these developments have affected economic activity thus far, but there seems little doubt that they have hurt household and business confidence and that they pose ongoing risks to growth. The Federal Reserve continues to monitor developments in financial markets and institutions closely and is in frequent contact with policymakers in Europe and elsewhere.
Monetary policy must be responsive to changes in the economy and, in particular, to the outlook for growth and inflation. As I mentioned earlier, the recent data have indicated that economic growth during the first half of this year was considerably slower than the Federal Open Market Committee had been expecting, and that temporary factors can account for only a portion of the economic weakness that we have observed. Consequently, although we expect a moderate recovery to continue and indeed to strengthen over time, the Committee has marked down its outlook for the likely pace of growth over coming quarters. With commodity prices and other import prices moderating and with longer-term inflation expectations remaining stable, we expect inflation to settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below the rate of 2 percent, or a bit less, that most Committee participants view as being consistent with our dual mandate.
In light of its current outlook, the Committee recently decided to provide more specific forward guidance about its expectations for the future path of the federal funds rate. In particular, in the statement following our meeting earlier this month, we indicated that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013. That is, in what the Committee judges to be the most likely scenarios for resource utilization and inflation in the medium term, the target for the federal funds rate would be held at its current low levels for at least two more years.
In addition to refining our forward guidance, the Federal Reserve has a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus. We discussed the relative merits and costs of such tools at our August meeting. We will continue to consider those and other pertinent issues, including of course economic and financial developments, at our meeting in September, which has been scheduled for two days (the 20th and the 21st) instead of one to allow a fuller discussion. The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.
Economic Policy and Longer-Term Growth in the United States
The financial crisis and its aftermath have posed severe challenges around the globe, particularly in the advanced industrial economies. Thus far I have reviewed some of those challenges, offered some diagnoses for the slow economic recovery in the United States, and briefly discussed the policy response by the Federal Reserve. However, this conference is focused on longer-run economic growth, and appropriately so, given the fundamental importance of long-term growth rates in the determination of living standards. In that spirit, let me turn now to a brief discussion of the longer-run prospects for the U.S. economy and the role of economic policy in shaping those prospects.
Notwithstanding the severe difficulties we currently face, I do not expect the long-run growth potential of the U.S. economy to be materially affected by the crisis and the recession if--and I stress if--our country takes the necessary steps to secure that outcome. Over the medium term, housing activity will stabilize and begin to grow again, if for no other reason than that ongoing population growth and household formation will ultimately demand it. Good, proactive housing policies could help speed that process. Financial markets and institutions have already made considerable progress toward normalization, and I anticipate that the financial sector will continue to adapt to ongoing reforms while still performing its vital intermediation functions. Households will continue to strengthen their balance sheets, a process that will be sped up considerably if the recovery accelerates but that will move forward in any case. Businesses will continue to invest in new capital, adopt new technologies, and build on the productivity gains of the past several years. I have confidence that our European colleagues fully appreciate what is at stake in the difficult issues they are now confronting and that, over time, they will take all necessary and appropriate steps to address those issues effectively and comprehensively.
This economic healing will take a while, and there may be setbacks along the way. Moreover, we will need to remain alert to risks to the recovery, including financial risks. However, with one possible exception on which I will elaborate in a moment, the healing process should not leave major scars. Notwithstanding the trauma of the crisis and the recession, the U.S. economy remains the largest in the world, with a highly diverse mix of industries and a degree of international competitiveness that, if anything, has improved in recent years. Our economy retains its traditional advantages of a strong market orientation, a robust entrepreneurial culture, and flexible capital and labor markets. And our country remains a technological leader, with many of the world's leading research universities and the highest spending on research and development of any nation.
Of course, the United States faces many growth challenges. Our population is aging, like those of many other advanced economies, and our society will have to adapt over time to an older workforce. Our K-12 educational system, despite considerable strengths, poorly serves a substantial portion of our population. The costs of health care in the United States are the highest in the world, without fully commensurate results in terms of health outcomes. But all of these long-term issues were well known before the crisis; efforts to address these problems have been ongoing, and these efforts will continue and, I hope, intensify.
The quality of economic policymaking in the United States will heavily influence the nation's longer-term prospects. To allow the economy to grow at its full potential, policymakers must work to promote macroeconomic and financial stability; adopt effective tax, trade, and regulatory policies; foster the development of a skilled workforce; encourage productive investment, both private and public; and provide appropriate support for research and development and for the adoption of new technologies.
The Federal Reserve has a role in promoting the longer-term performance of the economy. Most importantly, monetary policy that ensures that inflation remains low and stable over time contributes to long-run macroeconomic and financial stability. Low and stable inflation improves the functioning of markets, making them more effective at allocating resources; and it allows households and businesses to plan for the future without having to be unduly concerned with unpredictable movements in the general level of prices. The Federal Reserve also fosters macroeconomic and financial stability in its role as a financial regulator, a monitor of overall financial stability, and a liquidity provider of last resort.
Normally, monetary or fiscal policies aimed primarily at promoting a faster pace of economic recovery in the near term would not be expected to significantly affect the longer-term performance of the economy. However, current circumstances may be an exception to that standard view--the exception to which I alluded earlier. Our economy is suffering today from an extraordinarily high level of long-term unemployment, with nearly half of the unemployed having been out of work for more than six months. Under these unusual circumstances, policies that promote a stronger recovery in the near term may serve longer-term objectives as well. In the short term, putting people back to work reduces the hardships inflicted by difficult economic times and helps ensure that our economy is producing at its full potential rather than leaving productive resources fallow. In the longer term, minimizing the duration of unemployment supports a healthy economy by avoiding some of the erosion of skills and loss of attachment to the labor force that is often associated with long-term unemployment.
Notwithstanding this observation, which adds urgency to the need to achieve a cyclical recovery in employment, most of the economic policies that support robust economic growth in the long run are outside the province of the central bank. We have heard a great deal lately about federal fiscal policy in the United States, so I will close with some thoughts on that topic, focusing on the role of fiscal policy in promoting stability and growth.
To achieve economic and financial stability, U.S. fiscal policy must be placed on a sustainable path that ensures that debt relative to national income is at least stable or, preferably, declining over time. As I have emphasized on previous occasions, without significant policy changes, the finances of the federal government will inevitably spiral out of control, risking severe economic and financial damage.1 The increasing fiscal burden that will be associated with the aging of the population and the ongoing rise in the costs of health care make prompt and decisive action in this area all the more critical.
Although the issue of fiscal sustainability must urgently be addressed, fiscal policymakers should not, as a consequence, disregard the fragility of the current economic recovery. Fortunately, the two goals of achieving fiscal sustainability--which is the result of responsible policies set in place for the longer term--and avoiding the creation of fiscal headwinds for the current recovery are not incompatible. Acting now to put in place a credible plan for reducing future deficits over the longer term, while being attentive to the implications of fiscal choices for the recovery in the near term, can help serve both objectives.
Fiscal policymakers can also promote stronger economic performance through the design of tax policies and spending programs. To the fullest extent possible, our nation's tax and spending policies should increase incentives to work and to save, encourage investments in the skills of our workforce, stimulate private capital formation, promote research and development, and provide necessary public infrastructure. We cannot expect our economy to grow its way out of our fiscal imbalances, but a more productive economy will ease the tradeoffs that we face.
Finally, and perhaps most challenging, the country would be well served by a better process for making fiscal decisions. The negotiations that took place over the summer disrupted financial markets and probably the economy as well, and similar events in the future could, over time, seriously jeopardize the willingness of investors around the world to hold U.S. financial assets or to make direct investments in job-creating U.S. businesses. Although details would have to be negotiated, fiscal policymakers could consider developing a more effective process that sets clear and transparent budget goals, together with budget mechanisms to establish the credibility of those goals. Of course, formal budget goals and mechanisms do not replace the need for fiscal policymakers to make the difficult choices that are needed to put the country's fiscal house in order, which means that public understanding of and support for the goals of fiscal policy are crucial.
Economic policymakers face a range of difficult decisions, relating to both the short-run and long-run challenges we face. I have no doubt, however, that those challenges can be met, and that the fundamental strengths of our economy will ultimately reassert themselves. The Federal Reserve will certainly do all that it can to help restore high rates of growth and employment in a context of price stability.
1. See Ben S. Bernanke (2011), "Fiscal Sustainability," speech delivered at the Annual Conference of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Washington, June 14. Return to text
---
My own comments [tweeted and amended] after the fact..
Mr #Bernanke "pent-up demand" is an obsolete #economic phenomenon of the past & no longer relevant Do not depend on it @philadelphiafed < You people at the FED still insist on following obsolete economic models designed in the 20th century. You better catch TF up or be left far behind!
#Bernanke if low interest rates R a good thing 4 our #economy then why do #banks continue to charge #consumers #usurious interest rates? @ChicagoFed
#Bernanke "economic growth during the first half of this year was considerably slower than the FOMC had been expecting" < WTF else is new? When have you, and by extension the FED, been right about ANYTHING concerning this recession?!
#Humans R dissatisfied with a purely #debt based, exponential #credit expansion dependent #ponzi scheme #economy That will not change Welcome to the new paradigm Now catch TF up! @ChicagoFed
#Bernanke 4 a #change & some #hope why don't we try an #inflation rate of -2% to -4% 4 awhile?! @philadelphiafed @MinneapolisFed @ChicagoFed
#Consumer confidence & #trust N financial system, #FED which props up #banks & #corporations w endless #bailouts is non-existent @stlouisfed Saving the "status quo" is NOT worth throwing away the entire country!
@ChiacagoFed U really DON'T get it do U?! We NEED #inflation 2B -3% NOT +3% #painfully #obvious that ALL that matters 2 the #FED is the #banks & corporations the politicians & the f'ing IMF!
@spotfx I think many of us understand the reasons 4 the #FED #fear of #deflation However I don't feel like this cycle CAN complete w/out it IMHO deflation is necessary to flush all the greed & corruption from both the economy & the government By necessity there wouldn't be much left of either afterwards..
@spotfx As much as it may #pain #politicians (especially N an #election season) & the #FED, #deflation is a PART OF #capitalism @ChicagoFed It serves a valuable PURPOSE!
"I do not expect long-run growth potential of US economy 2B materially affected by the crisis & the recession" (Here's what YOU said in 2007 about the sub-prime housing problem -> http://ow.ly/6gDXm
HERE'S a suggestion! Let's bring back #usury #laws! Talk abt #economic stimulus! @philadelphiafed @MinneapolisFed @ChicagoFed @ClevelandFed
The reinstatement of usury laws for the entire country would destroy the usurious banks & corporations while stimulating the REAL economy by putting fiat into the pockets of Americans. Which is where it belongs!
---
Post source
Greg
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
August 26, 2011
The Near- and Longer-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy
Good morning. As always, thanks are due to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City for organizing this conference. This year's topic, long-term economic growth, is indeed pertinent--as has so often been the case at this symposium in past years. In particular, the financial crisis and the subsequent slow recovery have caused some to question whether the United States, notwithstanding its long-term record of vigorous economic growth, might not now be facing a prolonged period of stagnation, regardless of its public policy choices. Might not the very slow pace of economic expansion of the past few years, not only in the United States but also in a number of other advanced economies, morph into something far more long-lasting?
I can certainly appreciate these concerns and am fully aware of the challenges that we face in restoring economic and financial conditions conducive to healthy growth, some of which I will comment on today. With respect to longer-run prospects, however, my own view is more optimistic. As I will discuss, although important problems certainly exist, the growth fundamentals of the United States do not appear to have been permanently altered by the shocks of the past four years. It may take some time, but we can reasonably expect to see a return to growth rates and employment levels consistent with those underlying fundamentals. In the interim, however, the challenges for U.S. economic policymakers are twofold: first, to help our economy further recover from the crisis and the ensuing recession, and second, to do so in a way that will allow the economy to realize its longer-term growth potential. Economic policies should be evaluated in light of both of those objectives.
This morning I will offer some thoughts on why the pace of recovery in the United States has, for the most part, proved disappointing thus far, and I will discuss the Federal Reserve's policy response. I will then turn briefly to the longer-term prospects of our economy and the need for our country's economic policies to be effective from both a shorter-term and longer-term perspective.
Near-Term Prospects for the Economy and Policy
In discussing the prospects for the economy and for policy in the near term, it bears recalling briefly how we got here. The financial crisis that gripped global markets in 2008 and 2009 was more severe than any since the Great Depression. Economic policymakers around the world saw the mounting risks of a global financial meltdown in the fall of 2008 and understood the extraordinarily dire economic consequences that such an event could have. As I have described in previous remarks at this forum, governments and central banks worked forcefully and in close coordination to avert the looming collapse. The actions to stabilize the financial system were accompanied, both in the United States and abroad, by substantial monetary and fiscal stimulus. But notwithstanding these strong and concerted efforts, severe damage to the global economy could not be avoided. The freezing of credit, the sharp drops in asset prices, dysfunction in financial markets, and the resulting blows to confidence sent global production and trade into free fall in late 2008 and early 2009.
We meet here today almost exactly three years since the beginning of the most intense phase of the financial crisis and a bit more than two years since the National Bureau of Economic Research's date for the start of the economic recovery. Where do we stand?
There have been some positive developments over the past few years, particularly when considered in the light of economic prospects as viewed at the depth of the crisis. Overall, the global economy has seen significant growth, led by the emerging-market economies. In the United States, a cyclical recovery, though a modest one by historical standards, is in its ninth quarter. In the financial sphere, the U.S. banking system is generally much healthier now, with banks holding substantially more capital. Credit availability from banks has improved, though it remains tight in categories--such as small business lending--in which the balance sheets of potential borrowers remain impaired. Companies with access to the public bond markets have had no difficulty obtaining credit on favorable terms. Importantly, structural reform is moving forward in the financial sector, with ambitious domestic and international efforts underway to enhance the capital and liquidity of banks, especially the most systemically important banks; to improve risk management and transparency; to strengthen market infrastructure; and to introduce a more systemic, or macroprudential, approach to financial regulation and supervision.
In the broader economy, manufacturing production in the United States has risen nearly 15 percent since its trough, driven substantially by growth in exports. Indeed, the U.S. trade deficit has been notably lower recently than it was before the crisis, reflecting in part the improved competitiveness of U.S. goods and services. Business investment in equipment and software has continued to expand, and productivity gains in some industries have been impressive, though new data have reduced estimates of overall productivity improvement in recent years. Households also have made some progress in repairing their balance sheets--saving more, borrowing less, and reducing their burdens of interest payments and debt. Commodity prices have come off their highs, which will reduce the cost pressures facing businesses and help increase household purchasing power.
Notwithstanding these more positive developments, however, it is clear that the recovery from the crisis has been much less robust than we had hoped. From the latest comprehensive revisions to the national accounts as well as the most recent estimates of growth in the first half of this year, we have learned that the recession was even deeper and the recovery even weaker than we had thought; indeed, aggregate output in the United States still has not returned to the level that it attained before the crisis. Importantly, economic growth has for the most part been at rates insufficient to achieve sustained reductions in unemployment, which has recently been fluctuating a bit above 9 percent. Temporary factors, including the effects of the run-up in commodity prices on consumer and business budgets and the effect of the Japanese disaster on global supply chains and production, were part of the reason for the weak performance of the economy in the first half of 2011; accordingly, growth in the second half looks likely to improve as their influence recedes. However, the incoming data suggest that other, more persistent factors also have been at work.
Why has the recovery from the crisis been so slow and erratic? Historically, recessions have typically sowed the seeds of their own recoveries as reduced spending on investment, housing, and consumer durables generates pent-up demand. As the business cycle bottoms out and confidence returns, this pent-up demand, often augmented by the effects of stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, is met through increased production and hiring. Increased production in turn boosts business revenues and household incomes and provides further impetus to business and household spending. Improving income prospects and balance sheets also make households and businesses more creditworthy, and financial institutions become more willing to lend. Normally, these developments create a virtuous circle of rising incomes and profits, more supportive financial and credit conditions, and lower uncertainty, allowing the process of recovery to develop momentum.
These restorative forces are at work today, and they will continue to promote recovery over time. Unfortunately, the recession, besides being extraordinarily severe as well as global in scope, was also unusual in being associated with both a very deep slump in the housing market and a historic financial crisis. These two features of the downturn, individually and in combination, have acted to slow the natural recovery process.
Notably, the housing sector has been a significant driver of recovery from most recessions in the United States since World War II, but this time--with an overhang of distressed and foreclosed properties, tight credit conditions for builders and potential homebuyers, and ongoing concerns by both potential borrowers and lenders about continued house price declines--the rate of new home construction has remained at less than one-third of its pre-crisis level. The low level of construction has implications not only for builders but for providers of a wide range of goods and services related to housing and homebuilding. Moreover, even as tight credit for some borrowers has been one of the factors restraining housing recovery, the weakness of the housing sector has in turn had adverse effects on financial markets and on the flow of credit. For example, the sharp declines in house prices in some areas have left many homeowners "underwater" on their mortgages, creating financial hardship for households and, through their effects on rates of mortgage delinquency and default, stress for financial institutions as well. Financial pressures on financial institutions and households have contributed, in turn, to greater caution in the extension of credit and to slower growth in consumer spending.
I have already noted the central role of the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 in sparking the recession. As I also noted, a great deal has been done and is being done to address the causes and effects of the crisis, including a substantial program of financial reform, and conditions in the U.S. banking system and financial markets have improved significantly overall. Nevertheless, financial stress has been and continues to be a significant drag on the recovery, both here and abroad. Bouts of sharp volatility and risk aversion in markets have recently re-emerged in reaction to concerns about both European sovereign debts and developments related to the U.S. fiscal situation, including the recent downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit rating by one of the major rating agencies and the controversy concerning the raising of the U.S. federal debt ceiling. It is difficult to judge by how much these developments have affected economic activity thus far, but there seems little doubt that they have hurt household and business confidence and that they pose ongoing risks to growth. The Federal Reserve continues to monitor developments in financial markets and institutions closely and is in frequent contact with policymakers in Europe and elsewhere.
Monetary policy must be responsive to changes in the economy and, in particular, to the outlook for growth and inflation. As I mentioned earlier, the recent data have indicated that economic growth during the first half of this year was considerably slower than the Federal Open Market Committee had been expecting, and that temporary factors can account for only a portion of the economic weakness that we have observed. Consequently, although we expect a moderate recovery to continue and indeed to strengthen over time, the Committee has marked down its outlook for the likely pace of growth over coming quarters. With commodity prices and other import prices moderating and with longer-term inflation expectations remaining stable, we expect inflation to settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below the rate of 2 percent, or a bit less, that most Committee participants view as being consistent with our dual mandate.
In light of its current outlook, the Committee recently decided to provide more specific forward guidance about its expectations for the future path of the federal funds rate. In particular, in the statement following our meeting earlier this month, we indicated that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013. That is, in what the Committee judges to be the most likely scenarios for resource utilization and inflation in the medium term, the target for the federal funds rate would be held at its current low levels for at least two more years.
In addition to refining our forward guidance, the Federal Reserve has a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus. We discussed the relative merits and costs of such tools at our August meeting. We will continue to consider those and other pertinent issues, including of course economic and financial developments, at our meeting in September, which has been scheduled for two days (the 20th and the 21st) instead of one to allow a fuller discussion. The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.
Economic Policy and Longer-Term Growth in the United States
The financial crisis and its aftermath have posed severe challenges around the globe, particularly in the advanced industrial economies. Thus far I have reviewed some of those challenges, offered some diagnoses for the slow economic recovery in the United States, and briefly discussed the policy response by the Federal Reserve. However, this conference is focused on longer-run economic growth, and appropriately so, given the fundamental importance of long-term growth rates in the determination of living standards. In that spirit, let me turn now to a brief discussion of the longer-run prospects for the U.S. economy and the role of economic policy in shaping those prospects.
Notwithstanding the severe difficulties we currently face, I do not expect the long-run growth potential of the U.S. economy to be materially affected by the crisis and the recession if--and I stress if--our country takes the necessary steps to secure that outcome. Over the medium term, housing activity will stabilize and begin to grow again, if for no other reason than that ongoing population growth and household formation will ultimately demand it. Good, proactive housing policies could help speed that process. Financial markets and institutions have already made considerable progress toward normalization, and I anticipate that the financial sector will continue to adapt to ongoing reforms while still performing its vital intermediation functions. Households will continue to strengthen their balance sheets, a process that will be sped up considerably if the recovery accelerates but that will move forward in any case. Businesses will continue to invest in new capital, adopt new technologies, and build on the productivity gains of the past several years. I have confidence that our European colleagues fully appreciate what is at stake in the difficult issues they are now confronting and that, over time, they will take all necessary and appropriate steps to address those issues effectively and comprehensively.
This economic healing will take a while, and there may be setbacks along the way. Moreover, we will need to remain alert to risks to the recovery, including financial risks. However, with one possible exception on which I will elaborate in a moment, the healing process should not leave major scars. Notwithstanding the trauma of the crisis and the recession, the U.S. economy remains the largest in the world, with a highly diverse mix of industries and a degree of international competitiveness that, if anything, has improved in recent years. Our economy retains its traditional advantages of a strong market orientation, a robust entrepreneurial culture, and flexible capital and labor markets. And our country remains a technological leader, with many of the world's leading research universities and the highest spending on research and development of any nation.
Of course, the United States faces many growth challenges. Our population is aging, like those of many other advanced economies, and our society will have to adapt over time to an older workforce. Our K-12 educational system, despite considerable strengths, poorly serves a substantial portion of our population. The costs of health care in the United States are the highest in the world, without fully commensurate results in terms of health outcomes. But all of these long-term issues were well known before the crisis; efforts to address these problems have been ongoing, and these efforts will continue and, I hope, intensify.
The quality of economic policymaking in the United States will heavily influence the nation's longer-term prospects. To allow the economy to grow at its full potential, policymakers must work to promote macroeconomic and financial stability; adopt effective tax, trade, and regulatory policies; foster the development of a skilled workforce; encourage productive investment, both private and public; and provide appropriate support for research and development and for the adoption of new technologies.
The Federal Reserve has a role in promoting the longer-term performance of the economy. Most importantly, monetary policy that ensures that inflation remains low and stable over time contributes to long-run macroeconomic and financial stability. Low and stable inflation improves the functioning of markets, making them more effective at allocating resources; and it allows households and businesses to plan for the future without having to be unduly concerned with unpredictable movements in the general level of prices. The Federal Reserve also fosters macroeconomic and financial stability in its role as a financial regulator, a monitor of overall financial stability, and a liquidity provider of last resort.
Normally, monetary or fiscal policies aimed primarily at promoting a faster pace of economic recovery in the near term would not be expected to significantly affect the longer-term performance of the economy. However, current circumstances may be an exception to that standard view--the exception to which I alluded earlier. Our economy is suffering today from an extraordinarily high level of long-term unemployment, with nearly half of the unemployed having been out of work for more than six months. Under these unusual circumstances, policies that promote a stronger recovery in the near term may serve longer-term objectives as well. In the short term, putting people back to work reduces the hardships inflicted by difficult economic times and helps ensure that our economy is producing at its full potential rather than leaving productive resources fallow. In the longer term, minimizing the duration of unemployment supports a healthy economy by avoiding some of the erosion of skills and loss of attachment to the labor force that is often associated with long-term unemployment.
Notwithstanding this observation, which adds urgency to the need to achieve a cyclical recovery in employment, most of the economic policies that support robust economic growth in the long run are outside the province of the central bank. We have heard a great deal lately about federal fiscal policy in the United States, so I will close with some thoughts on that topic, focusing on the role of fiscal policy in promoting stability and growth.
To achieve economic and financial stability, U.S. fiscal policy must be placed on a sustainable path that ensures that debt relative to national income is at least stable or, preferably, declining over time. As I have emphasized on previous occasions, without significant policy changes, the finances of the federal government will inevitably spiral out of control, risking severe economic and financial damage.1 The increasing fiscal burden that will be associated with the aging of the population and the ongoing rise in the costs of health care make prompt and decisive action in this area all the more critical.
Although the issue of fiscal sustainability must urgently be addressed, fiscal policymakers should not, as a consequence, disregard the fragility of the current economic recovery. Fortunately, the two goals of achieving fiscal sustainability--which is the result of responsible policies set in place for the longer term--and avoiding the creation of fiscal headwinds for the current recovery are not incompatible. Acting now to put in place a credible plan for reducing future deficits over the longer term, while being attentive to the implications of fiscal choices for the recovery in the near term, can help serve both objectives.
Fiscal policymakers can also promote stronger economic performance through the design of tax policies and spending programs. To the fullest extent possible, our nation's tax and spending policies should increase incentives to work and to save, encourage investments in the skills of our workforce, stimulate private capital formation, promote research and development, and provide necessary public infrastructure. We cannot expect our economy to grow its way out of our fiscal imbalances, but a more productive economy will ease the tradeoffs that we face.
Finally, and perhaps most challenging, the country would be well served by a better process for making fiscal decisions. The negotiations that took place over the summer disrupted financial markets and probably the economy as well, and similar events in the future could, over time, seriously jeopardize the willingness of investors around the world to hold U.S. financial assets or to make direct investments in job-creating U.S. businesses. Although details would have to be negotiated, fiscal policymakers could consider developing a more effective process that sets clear and transparent budget goals, together with budget mechanisms to establish the credibility of those goals. Of course, formal budget goals and mechanisms do not replace the need for fiscal policymakers to make the difficult choices that are needed to put the country's fiscal house in order, which means that public understanding of and support for the goals of fiscal policy are crucial.
Economic policymakers face a range of difficult decisions, relating to both the short-run and long-run challenges we face. I have no doubt, however, that those challenges can be met, and that the fundamental strengths of our economy will ultimately reassert themselves. The Federal Reserve will certainly do all that it can to help restore high rates of growth and employment in a context of price stability.
1. See Ben S. Bernanke (2011), "Fiscal Sustainability," speech delivered at the Annual Conference of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Washington, June 14. Return to text
---
My own comments [tweeted and amended] after the fact..
Mr #Bernanke "pent-up demand" is an obsolete #economic phenomenon of the past & no longer relevant Do not depend on it @philadelphiafed < You people at the FED still insist on following obsolete economic models designed in the 20th century. You better catch TF up or be left far behind!
#Bernanke if low interest rates R a good thing 4 our #economy then why do #banks continue to charge #consumers #usurious interest rates? @ChicagoFed
#Bernanke "economic growth during the first half of this year was considerably slower than the FOMC had been expecting" < WTF else is new? When have you, and by extension the FED, been right about ANYTHING concerning this recession?!
#Humans R dissatisfied with a purely #debt based, exponential #credit expansion dependent #ponzi scheme #economy That will not change Welcome to the new paradigm Now catch TF up! @ChicagoFed
#Bernanke 4 a #change & some #hope why don't we try an #inflation rate of -2% to -4% 4 awhile?! @philadelphiafed @MinneapolisFed @ChicagoFed
#Consumer confidence & #trust N financial system, #FED which props up #banks & #corporations w endless #bailouts is non-existent @stlouisfed Saving the "status quo" is NOT worth throwing away the entire country!
@ChiacagoFed U really DON'T get it do U?! We NEED #inflation 2B -3% NOT +3% #painfully #obvious that ALL that matters 2 the #FED is the #banks & corporations the politicians & the f'ing IMF!
@spotfx I think many of us understand the reasons 4 the #FED #fear of #deflation However I don't feel like this cycle CAN complete w/out it IMHO deflation is necessary to flush all the greed & corruption from both the economy & the government By necessity there wouldn't be much left of either afterwards..
@spotfx As much as it may #pain #politicians (especially N an #election season) & the #FED, #deflation is a PART OF #capitalism @ChicagoFed It serves a valuable PURPOSE!
"I do not expect long-run growth potential of US economy 2B materially affected by the crisis & the recession" (Here's what YOU said in 2007 about the sub-prime housing problem -> http://ow.ly/6gDXm
HERE'S a suggestion! Let's bring back #usury #laws! Talk abt #economic stimulus! @philadelphiafed @MinneapolisFed @ChicagoFed @ClevelandFed
The reinstatement of usury laws for the entire country would destroy the usurious banks & corporations while stimulating the REAL economy by putting fiat into the pockets of Americans. Which is where it belongs!
---
Post source
Greg
The Largest Bubble in U.S. History
---
On August 6th after S&P downgraded the U.S. debt rating from AAA to AA+ with a negative outlook, NIA prayed that Americans would not make the mistake of buying U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven. We normally don't pray about economic matters, but only God can save the U.S. economy today as well as investors who have been brainwashed into believing U.S. government dollar-denominated bonds are a safe place to store wealth. Unfortunately, only when hyperinflation arrives will the majority of American citizens realize that fiat U.S. dollars should be used as a medium of exchange only and not a place to store wealth.
Since NIA was launched two and a half years ago, the overwhelming majority of our economic predictions have come true, with many of our accurate predictions being unique only to us. Sometimes we are a bit early with our predictions, but they almost always eventually come true. One of our predictions that we have been wrong about in the short-term, but will be proven right about later this decade, is the collapse of the U.S. Treasury market.
We thought there was a chance that many Americans would once again make the mistake of buying U.S. Treasuries during the recent sell-off of global financial markets, but we were shocked to see the yields of some U.S. Treasuries such as the 10-year bond, decline to new record lows. The yields of many government bonds have fallen through their lows of late-2008, but unlike the liquidity crisis of late-2008 when gold prices declined to a low of $720 per ounce, gold futures on August 22nd reached a new all time nominal high of $1,899.40 per ounce.
NIA likes gold as a bet against the U.S. Treasury market, which we believe is the largest bubble in world history. Any investor buying 10-year Treasuries with a yield of only 2.20% needs to have their head examined. Based on official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, year-over-year price inflation in the U.S. is already 3.63%. NIA estimates the real rate of price inflation to currently be approximately 8% and we project real price inflation to reach double-digits next year. NIA finds it very unlikely that the U.S. will be able to survive the next ten years without hyperinflation.
Take a look at the long-term chart of 10-year yields below. After the inflationary crisis of the 1970s, 10-year yields surged to a high in the early-1980s of 14.5%. After inflation began to decline in the mid-1980s, the 10-year yield bottomed at 7% before rising again to 9%. In the 1990s, the 10-year yield averaged around 6.5%.
With the help of NIA's critically acclaimed economic documentaries including 'Meltup', 'The Dollar Bubble', and 'Hyperinflation Nation' that have been seen by millions of people, a larger percentage of the investment community is educated than ever before about the currency crisis that is ahead. We estimate that about 1/10 of our country now finally understands that as long as we are running massive budget deficits with our government making no real attempt to cut spending in a meaningful way, gold will keep increasing in nominal value and the U.S. dollar will continue losing its purchasing power. However, 9/10 of our nation still doesn't understand why they should own gold and would chase after $1,000 in cash being blown by the wind before picking up a 1 oz gold coin lying below them on the ground.
Investors today are buying and selling assets based on what they perceive to be risk assets and safe haven assets. Market volatility is now at a level last seen in March of 2009 towards the end of the last financial crisis. On days with either positive economic news or rumors that Bernanke is getting ready to unleash QE3, stock prices rise while the prices of both gold and U.S. Treasuries fall. On days with either negative economic news or rumors that Bernanke is unlikely to unleash QE3, stock prices fall while both gold and U.S. Treasury prices rise. Investors are buying both gold and U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven. Those buying U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven are doing so based on the market's actions in late-2008 when Treasuries rallied with the stock market collapsing. They fail to realize that every financial crisis is different and the next crisis will be nothing like 2008.
In 2008, we had a crisis due to a lack of liquidity. Today, the world is flooded with liquidity, but most people don't realize it yet because trillions of dollars are being hoarded on the sidelines and not chasing goods and services. Nobody knew for sure in 2008 how the Federal Reserve would react to the liquidity crisis. If the Federal Reserve did the right thing and allowed banks to fail we would have experienced many years of deflation. The Federal Reserve has made it clear that they will print enough money to bailout all major banks or other companies deemed "too big to fail". We are in a situation where the worse the economy gets, the more money the Fed will print and the higher prices of all assets will rise.
NIA predicts right now that over the next 16 months between now and the end of calendar year 2012, we will see the largest short-term increase in 10-year bond yields on a percentage basis in history. With CPI growth increasing for eight straight months and even the Fed's misleading core-CPI growth up 290% since October on a year-over-year basis, investors will soon realize that it is far too risky to own bonds that are paying such low yields.
President Obama yesterday nominated Alan Kreuger to lead his Council of Economic Advisers. We laughed when he heard Obama tell Kreuger that it will be tough for him to fill the shoes of Austan Goolsbee, who recently left his post to resume teaching at the University of Chicago. Whether it be Kreuger, Goolsbee, or Christina Romer (who preceded Goolsbee), they are all Keynesians who believe that more government spending and intervention is the key to bringing down unemployment and having a healthy economy.
Krueger worked in the White House during the first two years of the Obama administration as assistant Treasury secretary for economic policy. Krueger received his Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University and has worked at Princeton University since 1987, where his mail frequently gets mixed up with fellow Keynesian and New York Times op-ed columnist Paul Krugman. Krueger is the author of a book that was written solely to convince readers that having a high minimum wage doesn't cause unemployment. It should be common sense to all NIA members that if the government raised the minimum wage to $50 per hour, unemployment would rise dramatically as most jobs paying wages below $50 per hour would be destroyed. The truth is, eliminating the U.S. minimum wage would create thousands of new entry-level jobs in America and help lower the unemployment rate. Krueger was also instrumental in developing the "cash-for-clunkers" program, which NIA has written about on many occasions as being a monumental disaster for the U.S. economy.
It is absurd how the mainstream media calls Ron Paul an extremist for wanting to eliminate government intervention in our financial markets, reduce government spending, balance the budget, stop the Fed from printing money, and return to sound money. In NIA's opinion, Krueger is the real extremist. If there was no minimum wage and there never was "cash-for-clunkers", many unemployed 17 year old kids who are home on Facebook, could instead be out earning enough money to buy their own used car. The youth unemployment rate is currently double the overall unemployment rate and used car prices are up 20% during the past year, because of the policies supported by Krueger.
The U.S. government used "cash-for-clunkers" to buy phony GDP growth in 2009, stealing from future automobile sales. After the "cash-for-clunkers" program ended, General Motors reported that their sales in August of 2010 declined 25% from sales in August of 2009. NIA predicted on September 1, 2010, that this would lead to a sharp contraction in GDP growth and cause the Fed to unleash the mother of all quantitative easing. Two months later on November 3, 2010, the Fed announced $600 billion in additional quantitative easing.
GDP growth in the 4Q of 2010 declined to 3.14% on a year-over-year basis, down from 3.51% in the 3Q of 2010. GDP growth has continued to decline lower this year to 2.24% in the first quarter and 1.55% in the second quarter (which was just revised downward from an initial estimate of 1.62%). The BLS used a price deflator of only 2.5% in the 2Q. In our opinion, real GDP in the U.S. today is already in negative territory. With it becoming increasingly likely that official year-over-year GDP changes will become negative by the end of calendar year 2011, it is only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve unleashes QE3 in disguise under a new name.
With the Federal Reserve no longer reporting the M3 money supply, the broadest measure of money supply currently reported by the Fed is M2. During the past few weeks, the U.S. has been seeing a very alarming rise in M2. The M2 money supply has risen $228.5 billion over the past four weeks to $9.5218 trillion. On an annualized basis, this equals a 32% increase in M2. Much of this gain can be attributed to people moving funds from institutional money funds and large time deposits into checking and savings accounts. Investors are nervous about the state of our economy and as soon as the investment community begins to realize that the next economic crisis will be a currency crisis, not a liquidity crisis, we will see the world lose confidence in the U.S. dollar and rush out of U.S. Treasuries and into gold, silver, and other real assets.
It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us
On August 6th after S&P downgraded the U.S. debt rating from AAA to AA+ with a negative outlook, NIA prayed that Americans would not make the mistake of buying U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven. We normally don't pray about economic matters, but only God can save the U.S. economy today as well as investors who have been brainwashed into believing U.S. government dollar-denominated bonds are a safe place to store wealth. Unfortunately, only when hyperinflation arrives will the majority of American citizens realize that fiat U.S. dollars should be used as a medium of exchange only and not a place to store wealth.
Since NIA was launched two and a half years ago, the overwhelming majority of our economic predictions have come true, with many of our accurate predictions being unique only to us. Sometimes we are a bit early with our predictions, but they almost always eventually come true. One of our predictions that we have been wrong about in the short-term, but will be proven right about later this decade, is the collapse of the U.S. Treasury market.
We thought there was a chance that many Americans would once again make the mistake of buying U.S. Treasuries during the recent sell-off of global financial markets, but we were shocked to see the yields of some U.S. Treasuries such as the 10-year bond, decline to new record lows. The yields of many government bonds have fallen through their lows of late-2008, but unlike the liquidity crisis of late-2008 when gold prices declined to a low of $720 per ounce, gold futures on August 22nd reached a new all time nominal high of $1,899.40 per ounce.
NIA likes gold as a bet against the U.S. Treasury market, which we believe is the largest bubble in world history. Any investor buying 10-year Treasuries with a yield of only 2.20% needs to have their head examined. Based on official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, year-over-year price inflation in the U.S. is already 3.63%. NIA estimates the real rate of price inflation to currently be approximately 8% and we project real price inflation to reach double-digits next year. NIA finds it very unlikely that the U.S. will be able to survive the next ten years without hyperinflation.
Take a look at the long-term chart of 10-year yields below. After the inflationary crisis of the 1970s, 10-year yields surged to a high in the early-1980s of 14.5%. After inflation began to decline in the mid-1980s, the 10-year yield bottomed at 7% before rising again to 9%. In the 1990s, the 10-year yield averaged around 6.5%.
With the help of NIA's critically acclaimed economic documentaries including 'Meltup', 'The Dollar Bubble', and 'Hyperinflation Nation' that have been seen by millions of people, a larger percentage of the investment community is educated than ever before about the currency crisis that is ahead. We estimate that about 1/10 of our country now finally understands that as long as we are running massive budget deficits with our government making no real attempt to cut spending in a meaningful way, gold will keep increasing in nominal value and the U.S. dollar will continue losing its purchasing power. However, 9/10 of our nation still doesn't understand why they should own gold and would chase after $1,000 in cash being blown by the wind before picking up a 1 oz gold coin lying below them on the ground.
Investors today are buying and selling assets based on what they perceive to be risk assets and safe haven assets. Market volatility is now at a level last seen in March of 2009 towards the end of the last financial crisis. On days with either positive economic news or rumors that Bernanke is getting ready to unleash QE3, stock prices rise while the prices of both gold and U.S. Treasuries fall. On days with either negative economic news or rumors that Bernanke is unlikely to unleash QE3, stock prices fall while both gold and U.S. Treasury prices rise. Investors are buying both gold and U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven. Those buying U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven are doing so based on the market's actions in late-2008 when Treasuries rallied with the stock market collapsing. They fail to realize that every financial crisis is different and the next crisis will be nothing like 2008.
In 2008, we had a crisis due to a lack of liquidity. Today, the world is flooded with liquidity, but most people don't realize it yet because trillions of dollars are being hoarded on the sidelines and not chasing goods and services. Nobody knew for sure in 2008 how the Federal Reserve would react to the liquidity crisis. If the Federal Reserve did the right thing and allowed banks to fail we would have experienced many years of deflation. The Federal Reserve has made it clear that they will print enough money to bailout all major banks or other companies deemed "too big to fail". We are in a situation where the worse the economy gets, the more money the Fed will print and the higher prices of all assets will rise.
NIA predicts right now that over the next 16 months between now and the end of calendar year 2012, we will see the largest short-term increase in 10-year bond yields on a percentage basis in history. With CPI growth increasing for eight straight months and even the Fed's misleading core-CPI growth up 290% since October on a year-over-year basis, investors will soon realize that it is far too risky to own bonds that are paying such low yields.
President Obama yesterday nominated Alan Kreuger to lead his Council of Economic Advisers. We laughed when he heard Obama tell Kreuger that it will be tough for him to fill the shoes of Austan Goolsbee, who recently left his post to resume teaching at the University of Chicago. Whether it be Kreuger, Goolsbee, or Christina Romer (who preceded Goolsbee), they are all Keynesians who believe that more government spending and intervention is the key to bringing down unemployment and having a healthy economy.
Krueger worked in the White House during the first two years of the Obama administration as assistant Treasury secretary for economic policy. Krueger received his Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University and has worked at Princeton University since 1987, where his mail frequently gets mixed up with fellow Keynesian and New York Times op-ed columnist Paul Krugman. Krueger is the author of a book that was written solely to convince readers that having a high minimum wage doesn't cause unemployment. It should be common sense to all NIA members that if the government raised the minimum wage to $50 per hour, unemployment would rise dramatically as most jobs paying wages below $50 per hour would be destroyed. The truth is, eliminating the U.S. minimum wage would create thousands of new entry-level jobs in America and help lower the unemployment rate. Krueger was also instrumental in developing the "cash-for-clunkers" program, which NIA has written about on many occasions as being a monumental disaster for the U.S. economy.
It is absurd how the mainstream media calls Ron Paul an extremist for wanting to eliminate government intervention in our financial markets, reduce government spending, balance the budget, stop the Fed from printing money, and return to sound money. In NIA's opinion, Krueger is the real extremist. If there was no minimum wage and there never was "cash-for-clunkers", many unemployed 17 year old kids who are home on Facebook, could instead be out earning enough money to buy their own used car. The youth unemployment rate is currently double the overall unemployment rate and used car prices are up 20% during the past year, because of the policies supported by Krueger.
The U.S. government used "cash-for-clunkers" to buy phony GDP growth in 2009, stealing from future automobile sales. After the "cash-for-clunkers" program ended, General Motors reported that their sales in August of 2010 declined 25% from sales in August of 2009. NIA predicted on September 1, 2010, that this would lead to a sharp contraction in GDP growth and cause the Fed to unleash the mother of all quantitative easing. Two months later on November 3, 2010, the Fed announced $600 billion in additional quantitative easing.
GDP growth in the 4Q of 2010 declined to 3.14% on a year-over-year basis, down from 3.51% in the 3Q of 2010. GDP growth has continued to decline lower this year to 2.24% in the first quarter and 1.55% in the second quarter (which was just revised downward from an initial estimate of 1.62%). The BLS used a price deflator of only 2.5% in the 2Q. In our opinion, real GDP in the U.S. today is already in negative territory. With it becoming increasingly likely that official year-over-year GDP changes will become negative by the end of calendar year 2011, it is only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve unleashes QE3 in disguise under a new name.
With the Federal Reserve no longer reporting the M3 money supply, the broadest measure of money supply currently reported by the Fed is M2. During the past few weeks, the U.S. has been seeing a very alarming rise in M2. The M2 money supply has risen $228.5 billion over the past four weeks to $9.5218 trillion. On an annualized basis, this equals a 32% increase in M2. Much of this gain can be attributed to people moving funds from institutional money funds and large time deposits into checking and savings accounts. Investors are nervous about the state of our economy and as soon as the investment community begins to realize that the next economic crisis will be a currency crisis, not a liquidity crisis, we will see the world lose confidence in the U.S. dollar and rush out of U.S. Treasuries and into gold, silver, and other real assets.
It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us
Monday, August 29, 2011
The American working man slowly fades away
---
As women saw workplace gains in recent decades, men’s prospects have diminished
By Mike Dorning
updated 8/28/2011 2:48:52 PM ET
As President Barack Obama puts together a new jobs plan to be revealed shortly after Labor Day, he is up against a powerful force, long in the making, that has gone virtually unnoticed in the debate over how to put people back to work: Employers are increasingly giving up on the American man.
If that sounds bleak, it’s because it is. The portion of men who work and their median wages have been eroding since the early 1970s. For decades the impact of this fact was softened in many families by the increasing number of women who went to work and took up the slack. More recently, the housing bubble helped to mask it by boosting the male-dominated construction trades, which employed millions. When real estate ultimately crashed, so did the prospects for many men. The portion of men holding a job — any job, full- or part-time — fell to 63.5 percent in July — hovering stubbornly near the low point of 63.3 percent it reached in December 2009. These are the lowest numbers in statistics going back to 1948. Among the critical category of prime working-age men between 25 and 54, only 81.2 percent held jobs, a barely noticeable improvement from its low point last year — and still well below the depths of the 1982-83 recession, when employment among prime-age men never dropped below 85 percent. To put those numbers in perspective, consider that in 1969, 95 percent of men in their prime working years had a job.
Men who do have jobs are getting paid less. After accounting for inflation, median wages for men between 30 and 50 dropped 27 percent — to $33,000 a year — from 1969 to 2009, according to an analysis by Michael Greenstone, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economics professor who was chief economist for Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers. “That takes men and puts them back at their earnings capacity of the 1950s,” Greenstone says. “That has staggering implications.”
Continue reading
As women saw workplace gains in recent decades, men’s prospects have diminished
By Mike Dorning
updated 8/28/2011 2:48:52 PM ET
As President Barack Obama puts together a new jobs plan to be revealed shortly after Labor Day, he is up against a powerful force, long in the making, that has gone virtually unnoticed in the debate over how to put people back to work: Employers are increasingly giving up on the American man.
If that sounds bleak, it’s because it is. The portion of men who work and their median wages have been eroding since the early 1970s. For decades the impact of this fact was softened in many families by the increasing number of women who went to work and took up the slack. More recently, the housing bubble helped to mask it by boosting the male-dominated construction trades, which employed millions. When real estate ultimately crashed, so did the prospects for many men. The portion of men holding a job — any job, full- or part-time — fell to 63.5 percent in July — hovering stubbornly near the low point of 63.3 percent it reached in December 2009. These are the lowest numbers in statistics going back to 1948. Among the critical category of prime working-age men between 25 and 54, only 81.2 percent held jobs, a barely noticeable improvement from its low point last year — and still well below the depths of the 1982-83 recession, when employment among prime-age men never dropped below 85 percent. To put those numbers in perspective, consider that in 1969, 95 percent of men in their prime working years had a job.
Men who do have jobs are getting paid less. After accounting for inflation, median wages for men between 30 and 50 dropped 27 percent — to $33,000 a year — from 1969 to 2009, according to an analysis by Michael Greenstone, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economics professor who was chief economist for Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers. “That takes men and puts them back at their earnings capacity of the 1950s,” Greenstone says. “That has staggering implications.”
Continue reading
Friday, August 26, 2011
Thursday, August 25, 2011
I was thinking about mouse traps
---
I was thinking about mouse traps today.. I had to buy one the other day so made a trip to Atwood's.
You can only buy a package of two traps.. If you only want one you're just kinda screwed..
They had these spiffy plastic mouse traps (two to a package)..
They wanted 5 bucks for these.. $2.50 each.. I have no clue as to why they might be worth 5 times as much as the wooden ones..
And then they had the trusty old standard mouse trap with a wood base..
And these were, a package, of two for 99 cents.. or 50 cents each..
Is plastic that much more expensive than wood?
I got the trusty old, cheaper, wooden ones..
But I was thinking.. How much does it cost to manufacture one of these? A penny? Two pennies? If that..
Anyway.. now I have one dead mouse and an extra trap.. I think I'll make one of those mouse trap driven cars.. That might be cool..
Greg
I was thinking about mouse traps today.. I had to buy one the other day so made a trip to Atwood's.
You can only buy a package of two traps.. If you only want one you're just kinda screwed..
They had these spiffy plastic mouse traps (two to a package)..
They wanted 5 bucks for these.. $2.50 each.. I have no clue as to why they might be worth 5 times as much as the wooden ones..
And then they had the trusty old standard mouse trap with a wood base..
And these were, a package, of two for 99 cents.. or 50 cents each..
Is plastic that much more expensive than wood?
I got the trusty old, cheaper, wooden ones..
But I was thinking.. How much does it cost to manufacture one of these? A penny? Two pennies? If that..
Anyway.. now I have one dead mouse and an extra trap.. I think I'll make one of those mouse trap driven cars.. That might be cool..
Greg
USA Economy is DOOMED and here is why!
---
It's quite OBVIOUS that the ONLY thing that can keep the United States economy from completely collapsing is MORE DEBT! More exponential credit growth! The reflation of the still bursting credit bubble!
Here's a picture and a good article on this.. Death by Debt
Here is a google search for "bad credit loans" it returns 44,900,000 results
A search for my own city/town "bad credit loans joplin mo" returns 72,900 while the POPULATION for the whole town is under 40,000!
And WHO ever talks about auto dealers? Auto dealers have a license to steal to this very day!
"bad credit auto loans" returns 8,500,000 results!
It's IMPOSSIBLE to hope that this economy will ever recover.. Everyone is BURIED in debt! And the ONLY thing that can possibly save the economy is exponentially MORE DEBT! That is the NATURE of a ponzi scheme!
Until the government & FED seriously address predatory sub-prime lending and usury this economy is doomed. Trouble is, the day that government and FED DO address predatory lending and usury this economy is doomed!
Because it IS a debt based ponzi scheme economy
Greg
It's quite OBVIOUS that the ONLY thing that can keep the United States economy from completely collapsing is MORE DEBT! More exponential credit growth! The reflation of the still bursting credit bubble!
Here's a picture and a good article on this.. Death by Debt
Here is a google search for "bad credit loans" it returns 44,900,000 results
A search for my own city/town "bad credit loans joplin mo" returns 72,900 while the POPULATION for the whole town is under 40,000!
And WHO ever talks about auto dealers? Auto dealers have a license to steal to this very day!
"bad credit auto loans" returns 8,500,000 results!
It's IMPOSSIBLE to hope that this economy will ever recover.. Everyone is BURIED in debt! And the ONLY thing that can possibly save the economy is exponentially MORE DEBT! That is the NATURE of a ponzi scheme!
Until the government & FED seriously address predatory sub-prime lending and usury this economy is doomed. Trouble is, the day that government and FED DO address predatory lending and usury this economy is doomed!
Because it IS a debt based ponzi scheme economy
Greg
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Luke 21:25-26 (New International Version)
---
Luke 21:25-26 (New International Version)
25 “There will be signs in the sun, moon and stars. On the earth, nations will be in anguish and perplexity at the roaring and tossing of the sea. 26 People will faint from terror, apprehensive of what is coming on the world, for the heavenly bodies will be shaken.
Luke 21:25-26 (New International Version)
25 “There will be signs in the sun, moon and stars. On the earth, nations will be in anguish and perplexity at the roaring and tossing of the sea. 26 People will faint from terror, apprehensive of what is coming on the world, for the heavenly bodies will be shaken.
Comets Honda & Elenin fulfill Mayan, Hopi and Christian prophecies as the Mayan calendar approaches its end on October 28, 2011 Calleman
---
Many people have now heard about the upcoming entry to the inner solar system of the comet Elenin (http://elenin.org) and there is a whole range of ideas and speculations about what this might entail. Comets have always been seen as harbingers of auspicious or (more commonly) ominous tidings and this one certainly is no exception. Ideas have been suggested that it is in fact a brown dwarf star, a spaceship or causes earthquakes. Regardless, this upcoming fall two comets, Honda and Elenin, later to be followed by Levy, will arrive creating a sequence of celestial bodies in the skies (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swhme7X7tWI). The comet Elenin, which has received the greatest attention of these, is estimated to be at its shortest distance from Earth around October 16-20, 2011 close to the midpoint of the seventh day of the Ninth wave (or Universal Underworld). Especially since this is right before the true 13 Ahau culmination date of the Mayan calendar (October 28, 2011), this comet is, regardless of the specific nature and role that it may have, an end time phenomenon. These comets will then arrive against the background of deepening global political and economic chaos produced because the institutions of the world are not consistent with the incoming unity consciousness of the Ninth wave. This mandates a study of how this comet is related to end time prophecies from various sources.
In The Mayan Calendar and the Transformation of Consciousness (2004) I wrote:
“At least some minor earth changes may thus result from the high frequency change in consciousness that we are now undergoing. But the reversal of cause and effect to generate a doomsday view where such earth changes are presented as the very purpose of creation is untenable. Any possible physical effects should be seen only as by-products of the consciousness field, and most climatic change will still probably be caused by carbon dioxide emissions rather than some purported insidious divine plan for the destruction of the earth through geophysical changes.”
This then referred to the Galactic Underworld and it is probably true to say that it is only with the Universal Underworld (see figure below) that the frequency has become so high that the Earth changes can no longer be classified as minor. What also comes forth from this quote is that I have sought to distinguish my view from many who merely focus on Earth changes as such without providing a meaningful context for them. I have emphasized that the Mayan calendar is fundamentally about the evolution of consciousness and Earth changes are either serving this evolution or are spin-off effects of it. I have thus made the point that the current Ninth wave of the Mayan calendar shows an irreversible direction towards the unity consciousness that will culminate later this year.
Continue reading
Many people have now heard about the upcoming entry to the inner solar system of the comet Elenin (http://elenin.org) and there is a whole range of ideas and speculations about what this might entail. Comets have always been seen as harbingers of auspicious or (more commonly) ominous tidings and this one certainly is no exception. Ideas have been suggested that it is in fact a brown dwarf star, a spaceship or causes earthquakes. Regardless, this upcoming fall two comets, Honda and Elenin, later to be followed by Levy, will arrive creating a sequence of celestial bodies in the skies (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swhme7X7tWI). The comet Elenin, which has received the greatest attention of these, is estimated to be at its shortest distance from Earth around October 16-20, 2011 close to the midpoint of the seventh day of the Ninth wave (or Universal Underworld). Especially since this is right before the true 13 Ahau culmination date of the Mayan calendar (October 28, 2011), this comet is, regardless of the specific nature and role that it may have, an end time phenomenon. These comets will then arrive against the background of deepening global political and economic chaos produced because the institutions of the world are not consistent with the incoming unity consciousness of the Ninth wave. This mandates a study of how this comet is related to end time prophecies from various sources.
In The Mayan Calendar and the Transformation of Consciousness (2004) I wrote:
“At least some minor earth changes may thus result from the high frequency change in consciousness that we are now undergoing. But the reversal of cause and effect to generate a doomsday view where such earth changes are presented as the very purpose of creation is untenable. Any possible physical effects should be seen only as by-products of the consciousness field, and most climatic change will still probably be caused by carbon dioxide emissions rather than some purported insidious divine plan for the destruction of the earth through geophysical changes.”
This then referred to the Galactic Underworld and it is probably true to say that it is only with the Universal Underworld (see figure below) that the frequency has become so high that the Earth changes can no longer be classified as minor. What also comes forth from this quote is that I have sought to distinguish my view from many who merely focus on Earth changes as such without providing a meaningful context for them. I have emphasized that the Mayan calendar is fundamentally about the evolution of consciousness and Earth changes are either serving this evolution or are spin-off effects of it. I have thus made the point that the current Ninth wave of the Mayan calendar shows an irreversible direction towards the unity consciousness that will culminate later this year.
Continue reading
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Extinction Level Event? Nibiru Is Near? - ELENIN
---
Question is if the government knew of a pending doom scenario would they tell us? The people? If the government knew there was a strong possibility of an extinction level event [comet E.L.E.nin] would they inform the populace?
Seems the government, at least in the USA, has had survival plans for themselves for a very long time now.. Including the ability to live under ground for a long period of time..
Lack of Congressional oversight
"On July 18, 2007, Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR), a member of the U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security, requested the classified and more detailed version of the government's continuity of government plan in a letter signed by him and the chairperson of the House Homeland Committee, which is supposed to have access to confidential government information. The president refused to provide the information, to the surprise of the congressional committee.[13][14] As of August 2007, efforts by the committee to secure a copy of the plan continue.[15] [16]"
Above from Continuity of Operations Plan - [Continuity of government C.O.G.]
And here is a very level headed examination of some of the information that is out there..
Extinction Level Event? Nibiru Is Near?
Also found what looks to be a good information website but can't get it to work at the moment! Hopefully it will be back up and fully functional soon.
ALAMONGORDO.COM
All tied together? Prophesy? Religion? Science? Politics? Governments? Illuminati? Elite?
Take a walk on the wild side.. Anunnaki & Nibiru The Return - A PUFOIN Perspective
Who TF cares.. I just want to know WTF is going to happen next!
Greg
Question is if the government knew of a pending doom scenario would they tell us? The people? If the government knew there was a strong possibility of an extinction level event [comet E.L.E.nin] would they inform the populace?
Seems the government, at least in the USA, has had survival plans for themselves for a very long time now.. Including the ability to live under ground for a long period of time..
Lack of Congressional oversight
"On July 18, 2007, Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR), a member of the U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security, requested the classified and more detailed version of the government's continuity of government plan in a letter signed by him and the chairperson of the House Homeland Committee, which is supposed to have access to confidential government information. The president refused to provide the information, to the surprise of the congressional committee.[13][14] As of August 2007, efforts by the committee to secure a copy of the plan continue.[15] [16]"
Above from Continuity of Operations Plan - [Continuity of government C.O.G.]
And here is a very level headed examination of some of the information that is out there..
Extinction Level Event? Nibiru Is Near?
Also found what looks to be a good information website but can't get it to work at the moment! Hopefully it will be back up and fully functional soon.
ALAMONGORDO.COM
All tied together? Prophesy? Religion? Science? Politics? Governments? Illuminati? Elite?
Take a walk on the wild side.. Anunnaki & Nibiru The Return - A PUFOIN Perspective
Who TF cares.. I just want to know WTF is going to happen next!
Greg
Monday, August 22, 2011
State of National Emergency means we're done.. period #Dictatorship
State of National Emergency
The following are a few examples of some EOs and their purposes that relate to a State of national emergency.
[rescinded by Nixon] 10995–Federal seizure of all communications media in the United States;
[rescinded by Nixon] 10997–Federal seizure of all electric power, fuels, minerals, public and private;
[rescinded by Nixon] 10998–Federal seizure of all food supplies and resources, public and private and all farms and equipment;
[rescinded by Nixon] 10999–Federal seizure of all means of transportation, including cars, trucks, or vehicles of any kind and total control over all highways, seaports and water ways;
11000–Federal seizure of American people for work forces under federal supervision, including the splitting up of families if the government so desires;
11001–Federal seizure of all health, education and welfare facilities, both public and private;
11002–Empowers the Postmaster General to register all men, women and children in the United States of America;
11003–Federal seizure of all airports and aircraft;
11004–Federal seizure of all housing and finances and authority to establish Forced Relocation. Authority to designate areas to be abandoned as “unsafe,” establish new locations for the populations, relocate communities, build new housing with public funds;
11005–Seizure of all railroads, inland waterways and storage facilities, both public and private;
11051–Provides FEMA complete authorization to put above orders into effect in times of increased international tension of economic or financial crisis (FEMA will be in control in case of “National Emergency”).
“President William Jefferson Clinton wrote one EO that can cover all of these. He wrote Executive Order 12919 on June 3, 1994, which was released on June 6, 1994.
This EO will be the only thing he needs to enact in order to become a fully empowered dictator. It covers all of the EOs mentioned previously. The only thing this EO doesn’t do is define WHAT the “national emergency” would have to be in order for this EO to be signed. Please keep that in mind. Anything can be declared a “national emergency” to facilitate EO 12919 being enacted.” [2]
Taken with permission from Government by Executive Order by Paula Demers, 1996. <-- source
---
Here is some interesting reading concerning State of national emergency
The following are a few examples of some EOs and their purposes that relate to a State of national emergency.
[rescinded by Nixon] 10995–Federal seizure of all communications media in the United States;
[rescinded by Nixon] 10997–Federal seizure of all electric power, fuels, minerals, public and private;
[rescinded by Nixon] 10998–Federal seizure of all food supplies and resources, public and private and all farms and equipment;
[rescinded by Nixon] 10999–Federal seizure of all means of transportation, including cars, trucks, or vehicles of any kind and total control over all highways, seaports and water ways;
11000–Federal seizure of American people for work forces under federal supervision, including the splitting up of families if the government so desires;
11001–Federal seizure of all health, education and welfare facilities, both public and private;
11002–Empowers the Postmaster General to register all men, women and children in the United States of America;
11003–Federal seizure of all airports and aircraft;
11004–Federal seizure of all housing and finances and authority to establish Forced Relocation. Authority to designate areas to be abandoned as “unsafe,” establish new locations for the populations, relocate communities, build new housing with public funds;
11005–Seizure of all railroads, inland waterways and storage facilities, both public and private;
11051–Provides FEMA complete authorization to put above orders into effect in times of increased international tension of economic or financial crisis (FEMA will be in control in case of “National Emergency”).
“President William Jefferson Clinton wrote one EO that can cover all of these. He wrote Executive Order 12919 on June 3, 1994, which was released on June 6, 1994.
This EO will be the only thing he needs to enact in order to become a fully empowered dictator. It covers all of the EOs mentioned previously. The only thing this EO doesn’t do is define WHAT the “national emergency” would have to be in order for this EO to be signed. Please keep that in mind. Anything can be declared a “national emergency” to facilitate EO 12919 being enacted.” [2]
Taken with permission from Government by Executive Order by Paula Demers, 1996. <-- source
---
Here is some interesting reading concerning State of national emergency
If you laugh at the notion of #FEMA camps check this out
---
Our government has "been there, done that" and I have no doubt they would do it again purely for reasons of self preservation.
Here's what the government of the United States of America did to Japanese citizens in 1942 by use of executive order(s)..
Japanese American internment
Now we have..
NORTHCOM
Operation Garden Plot
Rex 84: FEMA's Blueprint for Martial Law in America
This page has further information & links Code-name Cable Splice,Operation Garden Plot and a history
Serious problems face us as our currency and economy weaken quickly..
Be prepared
Greg
Our government has "been there, done that" and I have no doubt they would do it again purely for reasons of self preservation.
Here's what the government of the United States of America did to Japanese citizens in 1942 by use of executive order(s)..
Japanese American internment
Now we have..
NORTHCOM
Operation Garden Plot
Rex 84: FEMA's Blueprint for Martial Law in America
This page has further information & links Code-name Cable Splice,Operation Garden Plot and a history
Serious problems face us as our currency and economy weaken quickly..
Be prepared
Greg
Next challenges for $SPX - monthly & quarterly charts
---
SPX monthly 10 year chart
SPX quarterly since 1993 / 1994
SPX monthly 10 year chart
SPX quarterly since 1993 / 1994
Friday, August 19, 2011
The Fifth night of the Ninth wave - What Calleman is saying now Mayan Economy
The Fifth Night of the Ninth Wave starts as of August 18th of 2011 and many are wondering what this energy will carry. When we look back at history the fifth night usually appears as a very destructive time period and this naturally adds drama to the interest. Typically, the Fifth night means a ¨dark age¨ with some kind of destruction and without exception it has meant a sharp economic decline. It is however never entirely true to talk about an energy in the Mayan calendar as exclusively being destructive or constructive, because similarly to how the god Shiva among the Hindus is both the creator and destroyer all calendrical energies carry both aspects and the destructiveness is there to give room for something new to be created. For us who are living in this momentous end time what is important is to be able to grasp the most relevant information from the Mayan calendar and not get stuck in simplistic labels. It was by recognizing this multifacetness of the calendrical energies (and, if you like, Revelation 16) that I was able to correctly predict that the economic collapse caused by the Ninth wave would be precipitated by the Fifth day that started July 31 and ends now on August 17.
(http://www.calleman.com/content/
articles/Third_day_Ninth_Wave.htm, May 22 and http://www.calleman.com/content/articles/
Beginning_4thNight_9thWave.htm, July 13).
To some this downturn may seem like a destructive event, inconsistent with a day, but from the perspective of the emergence of unity consciousness, which is the chief purpose of the Ninth wave, the economic crisis is actually a constructive event that paves the way for the future. Based on that assumption it can actually be said that the development of this economic crisis has followed the Mayan calendar with exceptional precision. In the fifth day the stability of several major European banks has been seriously threatened and government leaders are in constant teleconferences to discuss how to halt the crisis. The US, on its part, has lost its status as AAA and since the midpoint of the fourth night (the seating of the energy of the fifth day) 7 trillion dollars of stock value has gone up in smoke.
Yet, a downgrading of the US creditworthiness and the loss of 7 trillion dollars of stock value really does not mean anything except that the numbers associated with certain papers have been depreciated. It is thus essentially correct when commentators say that so far the crisis has not had any effect on the ¨real economy.¨ The unity consciousness of the fifth day simply shocked the mental duality between abstract values and real values. There is however no reason to expect that it will be possible to limit the crisis to the ¨unreal economy¨. Thus, I expect that in the now beginning Fifth night also the real economy will be hit. How quickly this will actually manifest is hard to tell but I expect that events in the fifth night will lay the foundation for massive unemployment in many major Western countries (It is of course high already, but for many it has still been possible to keep on with the previous lifestyle). I also expect that there will be a large runaway from the stock markets and the stability of currencies will be negatively affected to a point where new radical solutions need to be considered.
In terms of real changes (in contrast to those merely on paper) the breakthrough energy of the fifth day was most clearly visible in the political arena where the authority of governments of major western nations is beginning to collapse. The looting and riots in the UK is one example. Another is that the political system of the United States could not prevent the Tea Party minority to impose its will on the debt ceiling discussions. something that has very seriously weakened the power of its whole political system. This political situation was also the main reason for the downgrading of the creditworthiness of the US, even it can be said that the US government along with many other western governments in fact are way too indebted for their own health and this is not something that was caused by the Tea Party. Regardless, the US political institutions have taken a major beating and no one is really able to see how its functioning is to be restored.
The world is thus entering the Fifth night of the Ninth wave with seriously weakened prospects for its economy and seriously weakened authority of some of its major governments. Such developments were of course what I always have predicted in my books based on the shifts in consciousness that humanity is undergoing with the eighth and the ninth waves: The weakening and downfall of hierarchies of dominance. I have however also often said that there is little reason to expect that the transition to unity consciousness to be smooth and easy, but that it will include very difficult reactions as well. The dramatic changes are coming now with the Ninth wave more rapidly than anyone could have imagined. As part of this, in addition to the crisis beginning to hit the real economy in the fifth night, I think it is realistic that there will be some kind of political reaction to the developing chaos. In the US this could for instance take the form of giving extraordinary powers either to Obama or to the new so called Super Congress possibly under the pretext of some act of terrorism. Given the spread of chaos especially in the economic arena it is not unlikely that such measures also could gain a significant popular support.
My own view is that the economic crisis will only deepen as we go throughout the fifth night into the Sixth day and take large proportions onwards until the end of the Mayan calendar on October 28, 2011. Naturally, many will then ask if there is a solution which could stop this, as I believe, ongoing decline of the current political and economic system. My answer would be that a solution simply does not exist within the framework of the world`s current economic system, since this mandates growth for its own functioning and survival. Yet, there is a fairly simple solution out of the collapse of the world`s economy that we now see the beginning of. The solution is the forgiveness of all debts, not only on the government levels, but most importantly debts that regular people have in the form of credit cards, mortgages and rents, etc etc. Such a forgiveness of all debts would have to be combined with the end of the use of money meaning that people just continue to do their jobs without any form of exchange. This would set an end to growth and help save the planet. It would also liberate people from having to make money in order to survive. All that would be required is that people care enough for one another to continue to do the necessary work for everyone`s survival and wellbeing day by day without asking for money in return. Technically this would not be so difficult to implement, but what is blocking such a solution to the problems of the world`s economy are primarily political and legal. It is however difficult to see why a government or any banks would be needed in such a system and so these groups that hold the world's military power would most likely resist it. Moreover, for many regular people at least in our current world it also may seem difficult to simply enjoy being and so constantly need to be doing things rather than being at peace with them. Yet, I do expect that in the sixth day of the Ninth wave, starting September 6th, we will see the first examples pointing in the directions of such solutions carrying the end to debts and money paving the way for the new world to be born after the end of the Mayan calendar on October 28, 2011. Unfortunately, billions of people lack basic knowledge about the Mayan calendar or even when its end date is and without this basic knowledge it is not easy to understand what is happening in the world.
We all have to work to correct this.
Carl Johan Calleman
Paris, 5 Manik, 17th day of the Fifth day (August 16, 2011) <-- source
(http://www.calleman.com/content/
articles/Third_day_Ninth_Wave.htm, May 22 and http://www.calleman.com/content/articles/
Beginning_4thNight_9thWave.htm, July 13).
To some this downturn may seem like a destructive event, inconsistent with a day, but from the perspective of the emergence of unity consciousness, which is the chief purpose of the Ninth wave, the economic crisis is actually a constructive event that paves the way for the future. Based on that assumption it can actually be said that the development of this economic crisis has followed the Mayan calendar with exceptional precision. In the fifth day the stability of several major European banks has been seriously threatened and government leaders are in constant teleconferences to discuss how to halt the crisis. The US, on its part, has lost its status as AAA and since the midpoint of the fourth night (the seating of the energy of the fifth day) 7 trillion dollars of stock value has gone up in smoke.
Yet, a downgrading of the US creditworthiness and the loss of 7 trillion dollars of stock value really does not mean anything except that the numbers associated with certain papers have been depreciated. It is thus essentially correct when commentators say that so far the crisis has not had any effect on the ¨real economy.¨ The unity consciousness of the fifth day simply shocked the mental duality between abstract values and real values. There is however no reason to expect that it will be possible to limit the crisis to the ¨unreal economy¨. Thus, I expect that in the now beginning Fifth night also the real economy will be hit. How quickly this will actually manifest is hard to tell but I expect that events in the fifth night will lay the foundation for massive unemployment in many major Western countries (It is of course high already, but for many it has still been possible to keep on with the previous lifestyle). I also expect that there will be a large runaway from the stock markets and the stability of currencies will be negatively affected to a point where new radical solutions need to be considered.
In terms of real changes (in contrast to those merely on paper) the breakthrough energy of the fifth day was most clearly visible in the political arena where the authority of governments of major western nations is beginning to collapse. The looting and riots in the UK is one example. Another is that the political system of the United States could not prevent the Tea Party minority to impose its will on the debt ceiling discussions. something that has very seriously weakened the power of its whole political system. This political situation was also the main reason for the downgrading of the creditworthiness of the US, even it can be said that the US government along with many other western governments in fact are way too indebted for their own health and this is not something that was caused by the Tea Party. Regardless, the US political institutions have taken a major beating and no one is really able to see how its functioning is to be restored.
The world is thus entering the Fifth night of the Ninth wave with seriously weakened prospects for its economy and seriously weakened authority of some of its major governments. Such developments were of course what I always have predicted in my books based on the shifts in consciousness that humanity is undergoing with the eighth and the ninth waves: The weakening and downfall of hierarchies of dominance. I have however also often said that there is little reason to expect that the transition to unity consciousness to be smooth and easy, but that it will include very difficult reactions as well. The dramatic changes are coming now with the Ninth wave more rapidly than anyone could have imagined. As part of this, in addition to the crisis beginning to hit the real economy in the fifth night, I think it is realistic that there will be some kind of political reaction to the developing chaos. In the US this could for instance take the form of giving extraordinary powers either to Obama or to the new so called Super Congress possibly under the pretext of some act of terrorism. Given the spread of chaos especially in the economic arena it is not unlikely that such measures also could gain a significant popular support.
My own view is that the economic crisis will only deepen as we go throughout the fifth night into the Sixth day and take large proportions onwards until the end of the Mayan calendar on October 28, 2011. Naturally, many will then ask if there is a solution which could stop this, as I believe, ongoing decline of the current political and economic system. My answer would be that a solution simply does not exist within the framework of the world`s current economic system, since this mandates growth for its own functioning and survival. Yet, there is a fairly simple solution out of the collapse of the world`s economy that we now see the beginning of. The solution is the forgiveness of all debts, not only on the government levels, but most importantly debts that regular people have in the form of credit cards, mortgages and rents, etc etc. Such a forgiveness of all debts would have to be combined with the end of the use of money meaning that people just continue to do their jobs without any form of exchange. This would set an end to growth and help save the planet. It would also liberate people from having to make money in order to survive. All that would be required is that people care enough for one another to continue to do the necessary work for everyone`s survival and wellbeing day by day without asking for money in return. Technically this would not be so difficult to implement, but what is blocking such a solution to the problems of the world`s economy are primarily political and legal. It is however difficult to see why a government or any banks would be needed in such a system and so these groups that hold the world's military power would most likely resist it. Moreover, for many regular people at least in our current world it also may seem difficult to simply enjoy being and so constantly need to be doing things rather than being at peace with them. Yet, I do expect that in the sixth day of the Ninth wave, starting September 6th, we will see the first examples pointing in the directions of such solutions carrying the end to debts and money paving the way for the new world to be born after the end of the Mayan calendar on October 28, 2011. Unfortunately, billions of people lack basic knowledge about the Mayan calendar or even when its end date is and without this basic knowledge it is not easy to understand what is happening in the world.
We all have to work to correct this.
Carl Johan Calleman
Paris, 5 Manik, 17th day of the Fifth day (August 16, 2011) <-- source
Outrageous government rhetoric & lies - Americans are the terrorists?
---
Nuland said in all of these countries in the so-called --experiencing the so-called Arab Spring, the policy of the Obama Administration has been grounded in its commitment to the right of all people to peaceful protest; it’s commitment to universal human rights of speech, assembly, the right to have a say in how one is are governed; and the obligation of governments to be responsive to the calls of their people for reform, aspirations of their people.
Those are the undergirding principles, she said.
above from Clinton speaks to Krishna and other world leaders on Syria
In contrast with..
The DHS has released yet another public service announcement-style video to push its If You See Something, Say Something campaign to encourage public vigilance in the War on Terror. The problem is, like previous PSA videos, the only way DHS can portray terrorists is as white men or women.
Now, I’m not saying it’s impossible for white, middle-aged American men and women to be terrorists, but the odds suggest otherwise. Over the last two years, 126 people have been indicted on terrorism-related charges, and all have been Muslim. According to Attorney General Eric Holder, only 50 of the 126 were Americans, but how many of these Americans were white men or white women has not been released.
above from ‘If You are a White, Middle-Aged American Male, You Might be a Terrorist!’
And in contrast with..
Inflammatory rhetoric
Tea-party terrorists!
Aug 2nd 2011, 21:51 by W.W. | IOWA CITY
THE idea that the tea-party faction in congress is a band of "terrorists" seems to be catching on. Joe Biden is accused of having affirmed a comparison of the tea-party Republicans to terrorists in a meeting. Politico reports:
Biden was agreeing with a line of argument made by Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Pa.) at a two-hour, closed-door Democratic Caucus meeting.“We have negotiated with terrorists,” an angry Doyle said, according to sources in the room. “This small group of terrorists have made it impossible to spend any money.”Biden, driven by his Democratic allies’ misgivings about the debt-limit deal, responded: “They have acted like terrorists.”
Mr Biden has denied using "the terrorism word", though as far as I know Mr Doyle hasn't.
Joe Nocera of the New York Times doesn't exactly say the tea party is a terrorist movement, but he pretty clearly whistles it:
You know what they say: Never negotiate with terrorists. It only encourages them.These last few months, much of the country has watched in horror as the Tea Party Republicans have waged jihad on the American people.
Mr Nocera concludes:
For now, the Tea Party Republicans can put aside their suicide vests. But rest assured: They’ll have them on again soon enough. After all, they’ve gotten so much encouragement.
above from Tea-party terrorists!
---
So why TF is it that the current administration / DHS seems to care MUCH more about "its commitment to the right of all people to peaceful protest; it’s commitment to universal human rights of speech, assembly, the right to have a say in how one is are governed; and the obligation of governments to be responsive to the calls of their people for reform, aspirations of their people." when it come to foriegn nations in the middle east than it does when it comes to Americans at home?!
Greg
Nuland said in all of these countries in the so-called --experiencing the so-called Arab Spring, the policy of the Obama Administration has been grounded in its commitment to the right of all people to peaceful protest; it’s commitment to universal human rights of speech, assembly, the right to have a say in how one is are governed; and the obligation of governments to be responsive to the calls of their people for reform, aspirations of their people.
Those are the undergirding principles, she said.
above from Clinton speaks to Krishna and other world leaders on Syria
In contrast with..
The DHS has released yet another public service announcement-style video to push its If You See Something, Say Something campaign to encourage public vigilance in the War on Terror. The problem is, like previous PSA videos, the only way DHS can portray terrorists is as white men or women.
Now, I’m not saying it’s impossible for white, middle-aged American men and women to be terrorists, but the odds suggest otherwise. Over the last two years, 126 people have been indicted on terrorism-related charges, and all have been Muslim. According to Attorney General Eric Holder, only 50 of the 126 were Americans, but how many of these Americans were white men or white women has not been released.
above from ‘If You are a White, Middle-Aged American Male, You Might be a Terrorist!’
And in contrast with..
Inflammatory rhetoric
Tea-party terrorists!
Aug 2nd 2011, 21:51 by W.W. | IOWA CITY
THE idea that the tea-party faction in congress is a band of "terrorists" seems to be catching on. Joe Biden is accused of having affirmed a comparison of the tea-party Republicans to terrorists in a meeting. Politico reports:
Biden was agreeing with a line of argument made by Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Pa.) at a two-hour, closed-door Democratic Caucus meeting.“We have negotiated with terrorists,” an angry Doyle said, according to sources in the room. “This small group of terrorists have made it impossible to spend any money.”Biden, driven by his Democratic allies’ misgivings about the debt-limit deal, responded: “They have acted like terrorists.”
Mr Biden has denied using "the terrorism word", though as far as I know Mr Doyle hasn't.
Joe Nocera of the New York Times doesn't exactly say the tea party is a terrorist movement, but he pretty clearly whistles it:
You know what they say: Never negotiate with terrorists. It only encourages them.These last few months, much of the country has watched in horror as the Tea Party Republicans have waged jihad on the American people.
Mr Nocera concludes:
For now, the Tea Party Republicans can put aside their suicide vests. But rest assured: They’ll have them on again soon enough. After all, they’ve gotten so much encouragement.
above from Tea-party terrorists!
---
So why TF is it that the current administration / DHS seems to care MUCH more about "its commitment to the right of all people to peaceful protest; it’s commitment to universal human rights of speech, assembly, the right to have a say in how one is are governed; and the obligation of governments to be responsive to the calls of their people for reform, aspirations of their people." when it come to foriegn nations in the middle east than it does when it comes to Americans at home?!
Greg
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)