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Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Trade idea $AUDJPY


I'm sorry but I feel I must continue to say that "this post is for educational purposes only". Trade only with your own analysis and manage your own risk. (Please see disclosure below)

That said I have entered an order to sell 2 lots 85.95 & 2 additional lots @ 86.19 making the avg 86.07, should both be hit. My stops will be placed @ 86.53 and 86.63 for total risk of 58x2 and 44x2 = 116 and 88 = -204 pips total risk. Targets will be 84.43 or 152x2 and 83.93 or 226x2 represented as 304 and 452 = +756 maximum profit potential.

Of course it is possible that one or none of these orders will be hit.

However, I feel if one or both did happen to be hit that this would be a relatively low risk / high reward trade.

Click for larger image

If we look at this in a fractal way, zooming in a bit, we see that the most recent high is 85.59 a break of that previous high may indicate a trip to at least the 23.6. We see a compressed tunnel at 85.28 and a trend supporting 377 EMA at 85.14. A break of and close below 85.06 could open up downside.

Possible early short entries would be resistance at 85.58 (very high risk) or a break and close below 85.39 which is the confluence of the smaller 23.6 and larger fib 61.8 as long as the tunnel and then the 377 EMA break this might not be a bad entry with a stop at 85.63. However the tunnel and 377 EMA do offer firm support in the immediate time frame.

As long as price remains above both the tunnel & the 377 EMA trend must be considered up.

Click for larger image


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