My current m1 $AUDUSD

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But it's prob different by now LMAO

The road to #FX #profits

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Here's the #trade $AUDJPY long m15

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I gotta go watch Survivor..

Happy pipping ;)

Current situation $AUDJPY m1

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Either way a break of this m1 triangle may give immediate direction..

Caution

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This mornings $EURJPY long #trades #FX

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Bought 9 times 5 wins, 3 losses & 1 B/E net +78.71 pips

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Understanding time frames and PA #FX #trading

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Trying to short audusd this morning as further downside is anticipated (by ME anyway! LMAO)

Here's a look at the 15 minute chart..

You can see here that we are below all three QUAD tunnels, a bearish indication, and have just tested the 13 EMA (white dotted line). Also my TRIX indicator is below the solid green zero line, also indicating possible / likely bearishness.

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When we switch to the 5 minute time frame we see price consolidation and a likely stop hunting spike. But why did it stop at 1.0377?

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Lets take a look at the one minute chart at the same point of the move..

Here we can clearly see that the "spike higher" tested the upper limit of the m1 tunnel structure and, and least thus far, seems to have failed that test though consolidation in this area continues.

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Based on this setup 1.0383 appears to be a reasonable beginning stop loss.

Smallest "tunnel" is constructed of EMAs 121, 144, 169 & 196. Larger tunnels are multiples of 4.

I have heard people say "pick one time frame and stick with it".

I strongly disagree.. IMHO one should try to be well aware of PA in as many time frames as possible.. Scan all of themin an effort to get a clearer overall view of the current market situation.

Many pips and good luck everyone!

Greg

$SPX Artwork - Monthly chart

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All lines are perfectly paralleled. Green lines were first drawn and then moved back in time into the 1990's.

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Here's my crazy looking $AUDJPY m1 chart from this morning

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Entered long 6 separate times this morning (daily looked overdone to me) lost 7.4 pips on one early on and took quick small profits on two worst entries (+8.6 pips) but finished total 5 wins & that 1 loss for net +95.9 pips

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Greg

Yes, size does matter.. #FX #trading #truth

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I know there are a lot of people out there who found themselves unemployed, saw a commercial on forex trading on TV and decided to give it a try..

Many of these people, and others as well, hope to use forex trading for such noble causes as putting food on the table and paying bills.

But to be brutally honest if you have $5,000.00 or less in your account you will find it virtually impossible to make a living.. And if you do not fully understand leverage you will very likely lose everything that you invest.

Sorry..

My recommendation to you if you have $5,000.00 or less in your account is to trade ONLY microlots. That is virtually the only way to have a chance of being consistently profitable because it allows you to realistically control your risk.

A microlot controls $1,000.00 worth of currency. If you have a $5,000.00 account you can have up to 5 microlots open at a time and still remain "leverage free".

Work hard at becoming a successful trader before increasing your risk exposure. Trust me on this.. If you cannot make money when trading microlots then you will not be able to make money trading standard lots.

The painfully obvious drawback of trading microlots is that, even if successful, you will find it difficult to make enough money to cover the everyday expenses of life on this planet.

I mean say you have a great week such as +400 pips? At a dime p/pip, which is what a microlot is, you just made yourself a whopping $40.00 in profit.. I doubt that will cover many of the bills you find yourself faced with.

So you go full in on every trade, yet use no leverage, you would have $40.00 x 5 which = $200.00. Better but I promise you it's VERY difficult to average +400 pips p/week consistently, week in and week out. And I doubt that even $200.00 a week would pay the bills you hope to pay..

Use your small account to "learn to trade". When / if you become consistently profitable the best thing to do at that point is to fully fund your account. If you have been trading 0.10 p/pip on $5,000.00 then you need $50,000.00 in your account to be able to trade with the same risk profile. This is very important!

Once you have adequately funded your account to handle $1.00 p/pip trades that $200.00 week becomes a $2,000.00 week and THAT will pay a few bills ;)

I have learned, after blowing up my first two accounts, thousands of dollars, to watch my leverage very closely! Seldom will I ever be leveraged more than say 3 or 4 to 1. I begin to get uncomfortable much beyond that. At 10 to 1 or higher you are just begging for disaster to strike.

If you do not control your risk you are only gambling and you will lose.

Be safe and protect your capital or you will no longer be able to play at all.

Good luck everyone! I wish you the best and great trading success! I also wish that was all it takes ;)

Greg

131.17 offering possible short term support, IMHO $GBPJPY h1 chart

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Here's what I'm #trading on $GBPJPY short(s) - 20120328 AM

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Live #trade $GBPJPY short h1

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Orange line, 131.18, is a weekly level. We had a break of the h1 tunnel & a test of that weekly level. Target is near top of h4 tunnel

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Here's what I "see" in #FX at the moment..

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$USDCAD needs to hold this most recent low

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Want an #FX #theory that ALWAYS works? Here it's yours! Good luck!

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This ALWAYS works! But for some reason I can't EVER seem to TRADE it!

Makes my life very frustrating!

IF you have the discipline to trade this properly it will make you fiat

Greg

So.. You think you want to be a #trader do you? This post is for you #FX #forex #market

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You can call me a fucking cry baby if you want. I don't give a fuck.

I consider myself to be a trading professional.. God knows I've been at it long enough now that I SHOULD have learned something..

I LOVE technical analysis! I LIVE on charts! I constantly study charts from m1 to the monthly. I'm in the office staring at charts at every morning at 7:00 AM my time. I'm here doing the same until at least 5:00 or 6:00 PM every night. Then I check the market throughout the evening, every evening, until I go to bed. Sometimes that's 10:00 PM sometimes it's 1:00 or 2:00 AM.

My point here is that I work hard.. I study hard.. I have more than enough desire..

However, basically what I have learned after 4 or 5 years of attempting to trade forex is that I'm a loser. Period.

That's not an easy thing for me to say because in life I have always succeeded at everything I find interesting and choose to pursue.

I repaired office equipment for 17 years and I was damn good.. I wrote computer software for 25 years (overlap yes) and I was damn good. I traded the equity market and I made fiat. I was damn good (See: I found an Edge (or two) in 2004 - #Market & #Stupid #Brokers)

Then I started trading forex..

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Why 95% of Forex Traders Lose Money!



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Day Trading ruined my life



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Stock Futures Trader losses it all and flips out



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Trading with FXCM, they manipulate the spreads again



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(Keep watching all of this.. a lot here. Not one video Including FXCM "discussion")



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We Are Traders - A Tribute to All Those Trading the Markets



Who are the Primary Dealers?

Primary dealer

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Primary dealer is a formal designation of a firm as a market maker of government securities. Primary dealer systems are present in many countries including Canada, France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. [1]

In the United States, a primary dealer is a bank or securities broker-dealer that is permitted to trade directly with the Federal Reserve System ("the Fed").[2] Such firms are required to make bids or offers when the Fed conducts open market operations, provide information to the Fed's open market trading desk, and to participate actively in U.S. Treasury securities auctions.[3] They consult with both the U.S. Treasury and the Fed about funding the budget deficit and implementing monetary policy. Many former employees of primary dealers work at the Treasury because of their expertise in the government debt markets, though the Fed avoids a similar revolving door policy.[4][5]

The relationship between the Fed and the primary dealers is governed by the Primary Dealers Act of 1988 and the Fed's operating policy "Administration of Relationships with Primary Dealers."[6]

Primary dealers purchase the vast majority of the U.S. Treasury securities (T-bills, T-notes, and T-bonds) sold at auction, and resell them to the public. Their activities extend well beyond the Treasury market, for example, according to the Wall Street Journal Europe (2/9/06 p. 20), all of the top ten dealers in the foreign exchange market are also primary dealers, and between them account for almost 73% of foreign exchange trading volume. Arguably, this group's members are the most influential and powerful non-governmental institutions in global financial markets. Group membership changes slowly, with the current list available from the New York Fed.[2]
The primary dealers form a worldwide network that distributes new U.S. government debt. For example, Daiwa Securities and Mizuho Securities distribute the debt to Japanese buyers. BNP Paribas, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and RBS Greenwich Capital (a division of the Royal Bank of Scotland) distribute the debt to European buyers. Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup account for many American buyers. Nevertheless, most of these firms compete internationally and in all major financial centers.

In response to the subprime mortgage crisis and to the collapse of Bear Stearns, on March 19, 2008, the Federal Reserve set up the Primary Dealers Credit Facility (PDCF), whereby primary dealers can borrow at the Fed's discount window using several forms of collateral including mortgage backed loans.[7]

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NFA orders $459,000 monetary sanction against New Jersey forex firm Gain Capital Group LLC

NFA fines Forex Capital Markets, LLC

NFA fines PFG $700,000; bars it from accepting new IBs for two years for deficient IB practices

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I'll tell you something else that I know (just through osmosis) and that is the fact that there are a LOT of trades that occur for which the volume of NEVER shows up in the market.. How is this possible? Because of the now global nature of trading is what I understand.. That a person with the "right connections" can have their broker enter and exit large trades by spreading these trades among other participating countries. And I understand that because these trades occur with foreign trading entities that the volume of said trades does not show up in the volume stats for the indicated equity.

Either that's the truth OR some brokers will take your trades on themselves and never actually enter the trades in the market..

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Trader on Bloomberg says markets are manipulated and volumes ficticious



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Brokers Shocking Truth: ECN, Dealing Desk, Spikes, Spread Manipulation and other dirty tricks...



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Price Shading - Forex Manipulation and Broker Games



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Stop Hunting With The Big Forex Players

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Like this guys smile?



Good luck SUCKERS!

Greg

Considering a NEW #investment strategy! #FX #forex #market

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I do consider myself a full time professional forex trader after having traded the FX market on a daily basis for about 4 or 5 years now..

Is it a tough game?

F'ing A! After 4 years of studying, learning and trading forex I always seem to feel extremely lucky to come out B/E over any extended period of time.

I have traded equity markets regularly since 1998 and I made fiat doing it.. Quite a bit as I was able to find market / broker inefficiencys. (See I found an Edge (or two) in 2004 - #Market & #Stupid #Brokers)

Here are some forex trading facts as found on Wikipedia

Foreign exchange fraud

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Foreign exchange fraud is any trading scheme used to defraud traders by convincing them that they can expect to gain a high profit by trading in the foreign exchange market. Currency trading "has become the fraud du jour" as of early 2008, according to Michael Dunn of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.[1] But "the market has long been plagued by swindlers preying on the gullible," according to the New York Times.[2] "The average individual foreign-exchange-trading victim loses about $15,000, according to CFTC records" according to The Wall Street Journal.[3] The North American Securities Administrators Association says that "off-exchange forex trading by retail investors is at best extremely risky, and at worst, outright fraud."[4]

"In a typical case, investors may be promised tens of thousands of dollars in profits in just a few weeks or months, with an initial investment of only $5,000. Often, the investor’s money is never actually placed in the market through a legitimate dealer, but simply diverted – stolen – for the personal benefit of the con artists."[5]

In August, 2008 the CFTC set up a special task force to deal with growing foreign exchange fraud.[6] In January 2010, the CFTC proposed new rules limiting leverage to 10 to 1, based on " a number of improper practices" in the retail foreign exchange market, "among them solicitation fraud, a lack of transparency in the pricing and execution of transactions, unresponsiveness to customer complaints, and the targeting of unsophisticated, elderly, low net worth and other vulnerable individuals."[7]

The foreign exchange market is at best a zero–sum game,[8] meaning that whatever one trader gains, another loses. However, brokerage commissions and other transaction costs are subtracted from the results of all traders, making foreign exchange a negative-sum game.
Frauds might include churning of customer accounts for the purpose of generating commissions, selling software that is supposed to guide the customer to large profits,[9] improperly managed "managed accounts",[10] false advertising,[11] Ponzi schemes and outright fraud.[4][12] It also refers to any retail forex broker who indicates that trading foreign exchange is a low risk, high profit investment.[13]

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which loosely regulates the foreign exchange market in the United States, has noted an increase in the amount of unscrupulous activity in the non-bank foreign exchange industry.[14]
An official of the National Futures Association was quoted as saying, "Retail forex trading has increased dramatically over the past few years. Unfortunately, the amount of forex fraud has also increased dramatically."[15] Between 2001 and 2006 the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has prosecuted more than 80 cases involving the defrauding of more than 23,000 customers who lost $350 million. From 2001 to 2007, about 26,000 people lost $460 million in forex frauds.[1] CNN quoted Godfried De Vidts, President of the Financial Markets Association, a European body, as saying, "Banks have a duty to protect their customers and they should make sure customers understand what they are doing. Now if people go online, on non-bank portals, how is this control being done?"

The foreign exchange market is a zero sum game[8] in which there are many experienced well-capitalized professional traders (e.g. working for banks) who can devote their attention full time to trading. An inexperienced retail trader will have a significant information disadvantage compared to these traders.

Retail traders are - almost by definition - undercapitalized. Thus they are subject to the problem of gambler's ruin. In a "Fair Game" (one with no information advantages) between two players that continues until one trader goes bankrupt, the player with the lower amount of capital has a higher probability of going bankrupt first. Since the retail speculator is effectively playing against the market as a whole - which has nearly infinite capital - he will almost certainly go bankrupt. The retail trader always pays the bid/ask spread which makes his odds of winning less than those of a fair game. Additional costs may include margin interest, or if a spot position is kept open for more than one day the trade may be "resettled" each day, each time costing the full bid/ask spread.

Although it is possible for a few experts to successfully arbitrage the market for an unusually large return, this does not mean that a larger number could earn the same returns even given the same tools, techniques and data sources. This is because the arbitrages are essentially drawn from a pool of finite size; although information about how to capture arbitrages is a nonrival good, the arbitrages themselves are a rival good. (To draw an analogy, the total amount of buried treasure on an island is the same, regardless of how many treasure hunters have bought copies of the treasure map.)

According to the Wall Street Journal (Currency Markets Draw Speculation, Fraud July 26, 2005) "Even people running the trading shops warn clients against trying to time the market. 'If 15% of day traders are profitable,' says Drew Niv, chief executive of FXCM, 'I'd be surprised.' "[16]

Paul Belogour, the Managing Director of a Boston based retail forex trader, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying, "Trading foreign exchange is an excellent way for investors to find out how tough the markets really are. But I say to customers: if this is money you have worked hard for – that you cannot afford to lose – never, never invest in foreign exchange." [17]
[edit]

The use of high leverage

By offering high leverage, the market maker encourages traders to trade extremely large positions. This increases the trading volume cleared by the market maker and increases his profits, but increases the risk that the trader will receive a margin call. While professional currency dealers (banks, hedge funds) seldom use more than 10:1 leverage, retail clients may be offered leverage between 50:1 and 200:1.[2]

A self-regulating body for the foreign exchange market, the National Futures Association, warns traders in a forex training presentation of the risk in trading currency. “As stated at the beginning of this program, off-exchange foreign currency trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all customers. The only funds that should ever be used to speculate in foreign currency trading, or any type of highly speculative investment, are funds that represent risk capital; in other words, funds you can afford to lose without affecting your financial situation.“ [18]

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And here is a little research I did this morning..

Slot Machine Payout Percentages

Various ways of describing the house edge on gambling games are traditionally used. With table games like roulette, blackjack, or craps, the house edge is normally expressed as a percentage. For example, blackjack has a house edge of between 0.5% and 1% when played with perfect basic strategy. That means out of every $100 bet, the player can expect to lose between $0.50 and $1.00. (This is a long term expectation, and in the short term, anything can happen.)

But slot machines are normally described according to their payout percentages. The payout percentage is basically what percentage of money will get paid out compared to what is wagered. A slot machine with a payout percentage of 99.5%, for example, would pay out $99.50 for every $100 wagered. (Again, this is over the long term.)

Slot Machine Hold Percentages

A slot machine's hold percentage is the amount of money the house can expect to win over the long term. This number is determined by subtracting the payout percentage from 100%. So a slot machine with a 96% payout percentage has a 4% hold percentage.

The hold percentage on a slot machine is the same thing as the house edge on a table game. The only difference is the term used to describe it.

Typical Slot Machine Payouts and Payout Percentages

A typical slot machine payout percentage varies according to what area of the country you're in. Slot machine payouts also vary based on what denomination of slot machine you're playing. Usually, the more active a casino destination is, the higher the slot machine payouts are. And the higher denomination games usually have a higher payout percentage than the lower denomination slot machine games.

For example, in August 2006, the slot machine payouts at the Trump Plaza in Atlantic City looked something like this:

Quarter slots - 92.6%
Dollar slots - 93.3%
Five dollar slots - 97.3%
(That information is according to Strictly Slots magazine.)

Cost Per Hour

Some authors, like Andrew Brisman, who wrote The American Mensa Guide to Casino Gambling, find it useful to look at the expected loss per hour of a particular gambling game. It's a simple calculation. You take the average number of bets per hour, multiple that by the amount being wagered, and then multiple that by the house edge or hold percentage. That's the expected loss per hour.

For example, in roulette, most players are going to get in 65 bets per hour. Assuming you're playing for $5 per bet, your total amount wagered per hour will be $325. Since roulette has a house edge of about 5.2%. So a roulette player's expected loss per hour is $16.90. (And keep in mind that's a long term expectation. In the short term, anything can happen.)

Most slot players make about 100 spins per hour. So using the examples above, a slots player can expect to lose the following amounts per hour at the Trump Plaza in Atlantic City:

On the quarter slots, the player will be wagering $125/hour. (Assuming the player is playing a five coin max bet, which is typical.) The player can expect to lose 7.4% of that, or $9.25.

On the dollar slots, the player will be wagering $500/hour. (Again assuming a five coin max bet per spin.) She can expect to lose 6.7% of that, or $33.50, per hour.

One the five dollar slots, the player wagers $2500/hour assuming a five coin max bet. She can expet to lose 2.7% of this, or $67.50 per hour.

So even though the percentage return on the higher denomination machines is better, the amount of money it will cost you to play on each spin will often still be higher.

How Do You Know What a Specific Slot Machine's Payout Percentage Is?

I offer a short answer to that question: You can't. The casinos don't make this information available, and the number of spins to estimate an accurate percentage would be dramatically high. Even after 4000 spins, you couldn't be entirely sure that your calculations were accurate because of the effect of the big jackpots. And 4000 spins would take 40 hours of play.

Copyright 2008, Slot Machine Strategy. All Rights Reserved.
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I'm telling you that I am considering closing out my forex account completely and taking the f'ing fiat to a local casino and playing 5.00 slots..

I feel like, after 4 or 5 years of working my f'ing ASS off at trading forex, that I can greatly increase my odds of winning by hitting the 5.00 slots with my fiat.

Greg

Price difference

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Check out these two charts & know that I had a target on a GBPUSD short at 1.5927

Oanda m1 - low = 1.5921 Spread adjusted 1.5923 (should have been FXCM low)

FXCM m1 - low = 1.5929

100.0 level and 377 EMA may be key for $GBPJPY downside

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m15 $GBPJPY w/ 3 fibs

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Greg