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Saturday, September 25, 2010

#Complexity in calculating #Economic data (Garbage in, garbage out?)

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From the AP Sept 25, 2010

U.S. companies invested last month in computers, communications equipment and machinery, boosting capital goods orders for the third time in 4 months.

The 4.1 percent increase to capital goods in August 'signaled' a rebound in business spending after orders fell by 5.3 percent in July. It also suggests manufacturing, which has helped drive economic growth since 'the recession ended' in June 2009, is still a bright spot in a weak recovery.

Click here for a link to this entire AP story 'Business spending on rise'
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These 'stories' are driving me insane..

"The gains in capital goods orders, along with a jump in business confidence in Germany, helped send stocks soaring"

"The overall demand for durable goods fell 1.3 percent in August" -Commerce Dept

"The sales of new homes was the 2nd worst on records dating back to 1963" paraphrased

"Home sales in August were down 29 percent from the same month a year earlier"

"The manufacturing sector has expanded for 13 straight months, as measured by the Institute for Supply Management"

"Business spending on equipment and software has been growing at a 20 percent annual rate over the past three quarters"

"Cisco Systems Inc, in August reported a 79 percent increase in earnings in the latest quarter"

"Oracle Corp., the world's biggest maker of database software, last week said it had a 20 percent increase in net income in the latest quarter, which it attributed to increased purchases of its products by corporations."

"The Commerce report said that orders for machinery rose 3.9 percent in August after tumbling 9.6 percent in July. Demand for computers and related products was up 12 percent. Orders for communications equipment rose 9.2 percent last month. Orders for primary metals rose 2.4 percent."

"The overall decline in August was the largest since a 2.6 percent decrease in August 2009 and the third overall decline in four months."

"Demand for transportation goods fell 10.3 percent last month, after having been up 11.6 percent in July. The swing reflected a 40.2 percent plunge in orders for commercial airplanes, a volatile category which had surged 69 percent in July. Boeing Co. saw its orders climb to 103 planes in July and then drop to just seven planes in August."

"Orders for motor vehicles and parts fell 4.4 percent in August after a 4.6 percent increase in July."

To cut o the chase here.. It has become my own opinion that MANY things economists and market participants seem to take for granted as being perfectly fine indicators of our current economic situation are easily manipulated by government and business themselves (the Plutocracy).

Things like

Capital goods

"But a recovering economy and brighter outlook for airlines point to a stronger 2010. Boeing found more demand than expected at the Farnborough Airshow last week, logging orders for 103 planes with a list price of $10.4 billion." < WHO bought/ordered all these planes? It wasn't me..

Durable Goods

"A 'surprise' jump in durable goods orders and corporate spending provided the boost to U.S. stocks" < Surprise huh? Wonder how that happened?

"Industrial stocks including General Electric Co., Caterpillar Inc. and United Technologies Corp. gained after the Commerce Department reported that orders for durable goods excluding transportation rose last month at their fastest pace in five months, while corporate spending also rose." < What is igniting all this durable goods orders and corporate spending? Do you know? Is it the economy?

GDP

CPI

Unemployment

If you'll just take a quick glance at the links above you will see that ALL economic data is based on THEORIES of calculation..

It is my suggestion that during this time of great economic upheaval our government has been, and continues to be, working closely with business interests in the United States to manipulate economic data (collusion). When you have an operating Plutocracy to begin with it is not hard at all to plug in a number here or there in all the economic calculations above, and also many more, to produce a number which is more in line with presenting the economic situation in any light you desire..

What i have a difficult time believing is that trained economists and active market participants seems to accept these, easily manipulated, numbers as Gospel..

For a clearer understanding of what is going on in our economy without all the government hype and data manipulation PLEASE visit..

Shadow Government Statistics
Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting

And WHY would our own government and business sectors be trying to conceal from citizens the true state of the economy?

Take a look at this article..

Special army unit ready to be deployed on American soil just before Nov. elections (Update)

Nobody Told Me.. Strange days indeed.. -John Lennon

Greg

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